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Robert Peston
@Peston
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
It is crystal clear from the magnitude of this defeat for @theresa_may that even if the EU had tweaked the backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement, she would not have won the vote. So the EU27 leaders will now have serious doubts about whether it is remotely possible to amend...
...her deal to get it through. One official from an EU government said to me: "I cannot see what Theresa May could actually ask from the EU that would ensure a positive vote. How will she be able to convince anyone she is able to get a...
..."majority on anything?" That is the heart of the matter. It implies that within a week or so, the prime minister will in fact have to choose between a no-deal Brexit or a referendum.
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Robert Peston
@Peston
Game-theory this for me please. If @theresa_may backs the @SteveBakerHW @NickyMorgan01 Brexit plan C she probably wins Brady amendment and defeats Cooper/Boles - but doing so would be based on what she believes to be a lie, since she is (probably rightly)...
...convinced there is zero chance of EU 27 leaders agreeing Morgan/Baker Brexit plan. In the process she buys another two weeks of false hope that Brexit deal looms but also massively increases risk of no-deal Brexit. Which about 20 of her ministers know and hate - so if...
...she goes that route some or all of them quit today or at the latest in two weeks (Clark, Rudd, Gauke, Ellwood, Harrington and so on - even possibly Lidington and Hammond). So does she today recognise that the game is up and her only hope is to enter cross-party talks...
Read 5 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
This is a big story. I‘ve been contacted by a load of Brexiter and Remainer Tories mystified that @theresa_may has rebuffed a Brexit plan devised on her own backbenches by soft-Brexiters and the ERG. You can read their own WhatsApp briefing note on it from attached screenshots.
It was devised by @NickyMorgan01, Stephen Hammond and @RobertBuckland for the Remainers and @Jacob_Rees_Mogg and @SteveBakerHW for the ERG, with @kitmalthouse as convener. There have been lots of meetings with @theresa_may and her team about it, including lunch with the PM today.
As you can read, it consists of a three year transition instead of two, to either a no-deal Brexit or a deal of some sort, with the Northern Ireland border kept open by a new backstop consisting of a permanent ‘lite’ Free Trade Agreement. There is no guarantee of course that...
Read 6 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
My #Davos19 sources give me best story to date about the gathering of the global ruling class. Tory-of-the-people @DavidDavisMP is there, regaling business leaders with his plan to make the Northern Ireland backstop redundant, by proposing that it would be a criminal
...offence under UK law for UK businesses to sell goods and food into the EU single market unless the goods and food met EU standards and rules. Why that would represent the UK taking back control somewhat defeated the gobsmacked assembled plutocrats - or perhaps they don't...
...really understand what Brexit is all about
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
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Camino Mortera
@CaminoMortera
I often agree with @EuroBriefing as I think he & colleagues offer some of the best insights on European politics. But the below is just unthinkable. Were the UK to unilaterally revoke Art.50, I'd bet a case would be put before the ECJ to stop this from happening.
Say UK stays in the #EU under Corbyn with the clear plan of triggering #Article50 a little down the line. What would a good EU lawyer do? She (because, let's face it, it would be a she 😉) would advice the EU institutions to bring the #UK before the #ECJ.
Why? Because, as a member-state, the UK would have breached Article 4 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) which lays down something very boring called the "principle of sincere co-operation" between the EU member-states and the EU itself.
Read 6 tweets
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J.N. PAQUET ✒
@jnpaquet
How @DailyMailUK twisted the results of @Survation poll and created a nice little frontpage to support Theresa May with some beautiful YESes in red and some lovely supporting words, even though the front page does not actually reflects the results of the poll...
So, let's have a closer look at some of the questions asked and the ACTUAL answers of voters...
Q1. When UK Govt's negotiations over the terms of Britain's exit from #EU are complete, would you support or oppose holding a People's Vote - a referendum - asking the public their view?

- Support 48% 👈
- Oppose 34%
- Don't know 18%

Large margin 14% to support a #PeoplesVote!
Read 18 tweets
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
Some #Brexit notes on where it’s at
EU gearing up for Brexit endgame but May will not get a chance to discuss Chequers/future relationship with all other European leaders until a final summit in Nov (or even Dec)
Salzburg summit in 3 weeks - May will address all 28 but with no discussion 
Completely separately Macron is pushing for a full EU28 discussion on future of Europe
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/m…
Read 30 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
5 slides on the #Brexit #Backstop for Northern Ireland/Ireland from @DPhinnemore and me.

1. Why there will be a Backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement.
Plus a synopsis of the EU and UK positions on the matter.

(Thread 1/6)
2. What is already agreed (green), agreed in principle (yellow), and not agreed (white) in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland in the draft EU Withdrawal Agreement.
ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
2/6
3. What has been offered in writing from the UK government on this Backstop (Protocol).
Ref. the Technical Note on Temporary Customs Arrangements published today.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
3/6
Read 7 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The #EU decision to trigger "nuclear option" #article7 against Poland is extremely awkward for UK and bad news for a deeply divided EU leadership that lost its head when Macron got elected. A 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/2…
First. The problem for Mrs May, both immediate and longer term.

1. The UK has invested huge amount of diplomatic capital in expanding UK-Polish relationship after #Brexit

German MEP on recent visit said Polish officials joking about sheer number of UK ministers who visited/2
They sent 150 Lightdragoons for Nato trip-wire, started Belvedere Forum and even deployed heavy weaponry (Wills n Kate) in the Summer.

Tomorrow May, Hammond and Boris all going. A PM, Fgn Sec and Chancellor in one hit. That's serious diplomatic love. /3
Read 16 tweets

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