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OK, finally had to write about the political implications of the shutdown. It's clearly hurting Trump’s approval rating. But will it hurt him in 2020? 53eig.ht/2W0sWdE
The case against:
—Shutdowns tend to have short-lived effects on e.g. approval ratings
—Too early for approval ratings to be predictive of re-election odds, anyway
—Lots of news so everyone will forget about it once some Mueller shit happens
—Shutdowns tend to have short-lived effects on e.g. approval ratings
—Too early for approval ratings to be predictive of re-election odds, anyway
—Lots of news so everyone will forget about it once some Mueller shit happens
The case for:
—No sign of an end to the shutdown, and it's the longest shutdown ever, so past precedent not hugely useful here
—It's fraying Trump's relationship with Congressional GOP
—Doubling down on the base instead of pivoting to the middle is probably a dumb 2020 strategy
—No sign of an end to the shutdown, and it's the longest shutdown ever, so past precedent not hugely useful here
—It's fraying Trump's relationship with Congressional GOP
—Doubling down on the base instead of pivoting to the middle is probably a dumb 2020 strategy
