Thread by @uk_domain_names

Watching Question Time last night, I'm more and more convinced a second referendum is unwinnable.

Not because there isn't now a Remain majority in the UK (all polling says there is, and changing demographics make it more likely).

But because the climate in which it would be

held is likely to be much, much, much more toxic than in 2016.

When you have a large part of the audience practically out of their seats and baying to inflict no deal on themselves, what chance is there of reasoned debate?

None whatsoever.

So I don't know where the solution

lies, but salvation won't come from referendum 2.

Best hope probably now lies in things getting stickier & stickier in the run up to Brexit Day, until circumstances force a Government of National Unity out of Parliament.

That, or Theresa May rescinds A50 then resigns. Mic drop.

My other concern is that "fair play" will drain a meaningful number of votes from Remain.

By this, I mean that some folk who were Remain but not ironclad desperado Remain will say "well, Leave won so it's not fair to take Brexit away again" and abstain or vote Leave.

(I know

people personally who feel that way. Remainers, yes, but their sense of "fair's fair, Leave won" overrides their desire to Remain.)

The other thing to come out of QT (even if the audience wasn't representative of the UK as a whole) is this:

An awful lot of people have little or no clue about Brexit, our relationship with the EU, etc. even after 2.5 years of relentless coverage.

Ref 2 will NOT change that.

But by far my most pressing concern is this:

There seems to be a clear, gathering momentum across Parliament to take no deal off the table. No matter how bad all the other versions of Brexit are, I think we can all agree that's the Big Bad.

But in a second referendum situation

there will be enormous pressure to put "no deal" as one of the ballot choices. Indeed, Theresa May will probably have to in order to stop the Tory party tearing itself apart on the spot.

Crazy, stupid, dangerous. It's all of those things and more. But it's also the reality we

face.

So if the price of killing no deal stone dead is the loss of referendum 2, then I believe it's a price worth paying, with a very heavy heart.

Because worst possible ref outcome is much much worse than worst negotiated outcome: no deal as *officially endorsed strategy*.

Because, despite the fevered dreams of hardcore Brexiters, no deal was never on the 2016 ballot.

But it could well be on the 2019 one.

And if it wins, there's no ducking it, no hiding place. We'll wake up to David Dimbleby saying "we're all no dealers now". And he'll be right.

You also have to bear in mind that we shouldn't fall into the leave trap of confusing hopes and wants for reality.

They hope and want Brexit to be some 21 gun salute super duper success.

We hope and want Theresa May to do the right thing.

Reality is she's going to do what's

best for the Tories, not for the UK. She's not going to preside in the splintering of maybe 20-25% of Tory ranks, putting them out of Government for a generation.

So when we're analysing what could happen, we have to always keep that consideration top of mind.

Summary:

A) I'm all over idea of a second referendum IF "no deal" is NOT an option.

B) I am fervently against 2nd ref if "no deal" IS an option.

C) I don't trust process of chasing 2nd ref will 100% definitely lead us to A).

D) Therefore on balance I'm against a 2nd ref.

To add, because there seems to be some confusion: I didn't suddenly have a massive epiphany or change of heart watching QT!

No, the ideas I posted in this thread have been percolating in my head for quite a while, for months now. But mob last night crystallised them even more.

One more thing: I'm getting a lot of pushback on the "fair's fair" point.

I don't agree with the logic of the people who think like that.

But just because I don't agree with them (and doubtless you don't either) that doesn't magically reach into their head and negate the issue.

In other words, it's a "real" problem. I've seen it. Other people posting in reply have seen it too.

So we can't gloss over it or armwave it away by saying it's illogical, that they're wrong, that they shouldn't think like that.

Because the critical thing is that they DO.

And that will cut the numbers on the Remain side, but it's a factor peculiar to the second referendum (obviously - neither side was "hard done by" going into the first) so it's going to be very hard to model.

Could be 1%, 5%, 10%, who knows? But make no mistake, it exists.