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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
"New Shepard and suborbital spaceflights, including passenger flights, represent the first step because 'the frequency of those missions can be very high," providing lots of practice [and cash flow] for more challenging missions, Jeff Bezos said. geekwire.com/2019/jeff-bezo…
Cash flow from launching school bus-sized commercial geostationary (GEO) satellites has dropped. New GEO orders once as numerous as 20 to 25 per year worldwide dropped to 17 in 2015 and 2016. latimes.com/business/la-fi… New revenue sources are needed like Starlink and One Web.
ULA is huge in two ways (1) payload capacity and (2) cost. Not viable for commercial launches.

Height: 233 feet
Weight: 1.6 million pounds
Thrust: 2.1 million pounds
Fuel: 465,000 gallons of liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen

spaceflightinsider.com/missions/defen…
Jeff Bezos: "It’s time to go back to the moon and to stay. [It is] a very useful place to build all kinds of things we will use to explore the solar system. Going first to Mars would be skipping steps."
Jeff Bezos: "]Settling Mars] would at most double Earth’s population. We really need to figure out how to build O’Neill-style space colonies...where we have, for all practical purposes, unlimited energy, unlimited resources. We’d have a trillion humans in the solar system."
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
A lot has been written about challenges facing journalism this week, but not so much about the business challenges. The formula an owner of a media outlet faces can be represented in a formula: abovethecrowd.com/2012/09/04/the… Each variable in the formula can make or break the business.
Among the critical variables for a media business is "customer acquisition cost." The higher that cost is, the greater the risk that (1) customer churn can result in stranded capital and (2) the business runs out of cash since the CAC is paid up front and revenue often is later.
The cost of acquiring a customer varies based on many factors, but to keep math simple assume it is $100 *on average* for newspapers/mags with significant variability by sales channel. If you look at many industries you can start to guess what CAC is or will be for a new product.
Read 9 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Why not use the term "volatility" to describe volatility? Because without pretending risk is defined by volatility you can't pretend you can quantify all risk with volatility. Pretending is fun and some people will pay you to do it in this way! cnbc.com/2019/01/25/if-…
"While volatility is quantifiable and machinable – and can be an indicator or symptom of riskiness and even a specific form of risk – it falls far short as “the” definition of investment risk. [Investors] fear a possibility of permanent loss.” Howard Marks google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
Fund managers fear volatility since that can cause customers to flee! But customers can also flee due to a permanent loss of capital or a strait line one way drop in value.

Volatility created by markets is what creates investing opportunity for a margin of safety investor.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Pricing power in a value chain is determined by relative scarcity. As the cost of creating the wholesale product decreases, the share of the profit pool realized by businesses that own distribution increases. This is true in every industry, but more so if the service is digital.
"The model for successful tech companies, contrary to myth and legend, is that they become distribution-centric rather than product-centric. They become a distribution channel, so they can get to the world. And then they put many new products through that distribution channel..."
"One of the things that’s most frustrating for a startup is that it will sometimes have a better product but get beaten by a company that has a better distribution channel." Andreessen a16z.com/2018/07/20/aft…
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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DCPetterson
@dcpetterson
Should the House vote Articles of Impeachment?

Let's agree:
1) Trump is a felon
2) He committed treason
3) His crimes are impeachable
4) If he wasn't president, he would be indicted

Q: What should Democrats do?
A: It's not as simple as it seems.

1/25
If you say,, "I will vote for anyone who will primary Democrats who don't vote for impeachment NOW!" just stop reading and block me.

The rest of you, hear me out. This isn't a simple question, and a misstep would be fatal--not only for Democrats, but for democracy.

2/25
Here's the nightmare:

The House enacts Articles of Impeachment. GOP Senators don't convict because of course they wouldn't, GOPers portray this as exoneration--Trump is innocent and Democrats are blind partisans. Trump wins a second term and fascists retake the House.

3/25
Read 25 tweets
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Zafar Shaikh
@zafargs79
#New Traders, Understand #Mathematics Of #Profit In Market Before You Put Hard #Earned Money On Risk.

Expectancy = Success Rate x Reward Risk Ratio

Lets Talk About Expectancy Of Short Term Directional Trading System.

Read On (1/n)
Success Rate = No Of Profitable Tades/ No Of Loss Making Trades

Reward Risk Ratio = Average Profit Per Trade / Average Loss Per Trade

If Success Rate is 0.5 and Reward Risk 2, Then

Expectancy = 2 x 0.5 =1

For Making Profit, Expectancy Should Be Positive Number (2/n)
To Calculate Expectancy, You Need Defined System With Rules To Get Success Rate and Reward Risk. If You Have No System To Take Decisions, You Are Hanging In Thin Air and Will Never No Whether You Will Keep Making Or Loosing Money In Future (3/n)
Read 12 tweets
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
I've read at least two dozen pieces now by analysts and scholars I respect gaming out what is going to happen to Idlib and none has given a convincing explanation as to why Turkey should just step back and let it happen without extracting a very high price from Russia and Iran
It reminds me of wave after wave of analysis before 2016 predicting that Turkey would never send troops into Syria and the many pieces before the start of the Afrin campaign predicting it would be an endless quagmire for the TSK
I don't dismiss the strong likelihood that the Assad regime might eventually regain much of Idlib. But to simply dismiss the possibility that Ankara might double down and consolidate its grip of Idlib in a way that deters Russia and Iran seems premature at this moment in time
Read 3 tweets
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Kristen L. Rouse
@TrueBoots
I am humbled to have been nominated to receive an award from @CityAndStateNY for my leadership of @NYCVetsAlliance. But City & State refused to include voices of women veterans in #HonoringVeterans program. I cannot accept this. My letter today: bit.ly/2uaUuR7
Last month, @CityAndStateNY asked if I could receive award. I was truly honored & said yes. That was followed up by an email asking @NYCVetsAlliance to partner on their veterans issue and #HonoringVeterans event. This was an even greater honor for us as a grassroots nonprofit.
Next day, @CityAndStateNY said no, what they meant was would we, as a member-funded grassroots org, pay them to advertise in veterans issue & buy a table at #HonoringVeterans event. This floored me. Their event budget is likely larger than our annual budget.
Read 19 tweets
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ARC 2020
@ARC2020eu
#NEW on ARC2020: #CAP & #MFF | Eco-Spin without Public Goods Substance.
Its been 2 weeks since the MFF proposals, here's our round up of some of the perspectives so far.
All perspective-givers tagged in picture.
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
What's needed?
@davidbaldock & Allan Buckwell of @IEEP_eu:
1: Sufficient funding for environmental measures in Pillar 1
2: Specifics for New Delivery Model
3: Flexibility for Pillar 1 to 2 transfers
4. Fund ANCs under Pillar 1
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
#MFF #FutureofCAP #CAP
And who said: "unconditional direct income support to farmers is manifestly absurd in today’s world when it maintains uncompetitive farming practices that have negative implications for the climate, the environment or people’s health"?
Why @AnnikaAhtonen of @epc_eu
Read 8 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets

Trending hashtags

#ProLife #AccidentsWillHappen #bigdats #TrustGod #Correction #smartciities #Trump #ai #QX_TPX #TrustTheTruth #NEW #smartcitiea #FutureofCAP #JUL25 #HonoringVeterans #ElvisCostello #Facebook #PHOENCIA #WhoIsQ #AlexJones #PanicMode #smartcities #InternetBillofRights #MAGA #bigdat
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