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Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I've read at least two dozen pieces now by analysts and scholars I respect gaming out what is going to happen to Idlib and none has given a convincing explanation as to why Turkey should just step back and let it happen without extracting a very high price from Russia and Iran
It reminds me of wave after wave of analysis before 2016 predicting that Turkey would never send troops into Syria and the many pieces before the start of the Afrin campaign predicting it would be an endless quagmire for the TSK
I don't dismiss the strong likelihood that the Assad regime might eventually regain much of Idlib. But to simply dismiss the possibility that Ankara might double down and consolidate its grip of Idlib in a way that deters Russia and Iran seems premature at this moment in time
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A contention I find odd about Relotius is this idea that his lies were brilliantly concealed. His pieces fed conventional stereotypes about other societies among Spiegel's readership in a flippantly emotive style that can at best be accessible and at worst condescending
Relotius didn't get away with it because he was some kind of literary genius. He got away with it because his pieces so seamlessly copied the conventional tropes of post-1990 German journalism that no one could tell the difference between his work and genuinely researched stories
I've been reading Spiegel since I was a kid. Every tmonths there is a story about "those crazy small time Americans", "the rebellious French", "inscrutable Turks", "chaotic Italians", "eccentric Brits", "moody Russians", "wild Arabs", "ungovernable Ukrainians" and so on
Read 8 tweets
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Extraordinary how hard the UK government is fighting to lose whatever leverage it has left over the EU. A deal to protect Northern Ireland from English politics is essential even with a second referendum. But lack of realism over the UK's position after March 2019 is remarkable
Many have the psychology of the UK government during Brexit transition wrong. Tories in particular have strong incentives to pretend that achieving Brexit in itself has been a huge success. May and Gove will avoid any great rows over EU decisions that only underline UK weakness
Any complaints among UK MPs or voters about EU regulatory action that shape UK economic and political life in Brexit transition will be deflected by government claims of all the fantastic goodies waiting for the UK just over the rainbow of a final trade deal with the EU
Read 6 tweets
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Do those who want a referendum before March 2019 rather than during the transition believe security threats without a backstop are manageable and risks from political escalation are controllable? Do they think they can hold the UK union together when all else falls apart?
Because once a state slides into existential crisis even the best intentioned leaders often end up facing disastrous choices
Many on both sides of the UK Brexit debate need to take a harder look at what happens to states in moments of existential crisis.

If you propose a course of action with very high levels of risk at least acknowledge the existence of those risks and factor them into your strategy
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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#SRO - ANALYSIS - With the ammount of forces being driven toward Greater #Idlib this night, clearly showing #Turkey has given green light for this move (it never happened until now), the best "winner" of the situation is the Northern Federation - #Rojava #SDF coalition (1).
#SRO - ANALYSIS - The most #Turkey proxies to be occupied in N-#Idlib | W-#Aleppo in front of the recent #HTS activities, the most of #SDF to breathe for coming weeks, far from the rising tensions and expected large offensive to be launched on Tal Abyad and Serekanye (2).
#SRO - ANALYSIS - So why #Turkey now completely turning tables ? #HTS presence and power was well known. But problem isn't #HTS for #Turkey, it's #Astana process. How to exist on international stage if you can't play your part (#Idlib was Turkey responsability) seriously ? (3)
Read 5 tweets
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#Khashoggi Case Thread: I am going to ‘pin’ this post to use it as an ‘Info Thread’ on the #Khashoggi Case. I am in #Turkey. I’ve been following the case closely and with access to sources & experts here. This is a very ‘sensitive’ criminal case due to ‘Diplomatic Booby Traps’!!!
The Evidence Obtained Outside Cameras will not show any evidence of ‘tempering’ but other than license plates of dozens of diplomatic cars (Many with tinted windows-large trunks) with related time stamp, drivers Info, model/year: Nothing.
#Turkish Intel-Investigative Bodies also have the list of all Diplomatic & Private Saudi & “other significant’ Planes in #Turkey for the period of ‘interest.’ Many of the Target airports have their own security cameras & related evidence.
Read 335 tweets
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These are the psychopathic takfiri terrorists US UK want to save in #Idlib
7 year US NATO Sponsored Terrorism in #Syria

US Sponsored FSA Barbaric Terrorists Throw Post Office Workers From Rooftops in #Aleppo 2012 Nov
♦18+ Graphic visuals
#Idliboffensive #Outrage4Idlib
These are the Jihadists US UK France want to evacuate from #Idlib
7 Year US NATO Sponsored Terrorism in #Syria
NATO AlQaeda Rebels Savagely Thrash a Captive Syrian Soldier With Rods Sep 2016
♦18+ Disturbing visuals
#Outrage4Idlib #idlibiçin #OUTRAGE
These are the psychopathic takfiri terrorists US UK want to save in #Idlib
7 year US NATO Sponsored Terrorism in #Syria
NATO member #Turkey & US sponsored FSA roasted babies to death in #AlBab #Syria
♦18+ Graphic visuals
#Idliboffensive #Outrage4Idlib
Read 23 tweets
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... #Idlib ?
As I wrote before - I hope a "dirty deal" can achieve what Syria's government needs right now: secure, open roads and control of borders.
... clearly the propaganda war on Idlib is on:
1st there's a Western social media "pro-Syria space" that hopes to create as much hate for whoever is still living there and therefore panders heavily to Western islamophobes by showing lots of veiled women ...
... Russia too has decided to use its kinda "official" channels to create as much dislike of the inhabitants of Idlib as possible ... here Idlib is now a "den" - not a province of Syria with ordinary Syrians ALSO still living there and having to make do - "terrorists" or not ...
Read 16 tweets
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Starting a new Last Jedi thread; we're going back through All the Callbacks, so it's going even longer than usual. Gonna warm up slowly with some miscellany. #sithmas
A year from now, I will not even begin to be able to explain why this made me cry laughing last night #sithmas
UPDATE #sithmas
Read 123 tweets
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NEW - #Ahrar al-Sham & Nour al-Din al-Zinki have merged, creating Jabhat Tahrir Souriya, branded with “green” revolutionary flag.

- Ahrar leader Hassan Soufan = leader
- #Zinki leader Tawfiq Shahbuddin = deputy

“JTS” calls on other groups to join for greater unity.
#pt: What does “JTS’s” formation mean?

- Unlikely to be a full merger, but closer Ahrar-Zinki coordinating ties have been clear for months.

- Northern #Syria’s two biggest non-#HTS factions are compiling (with Syrian Islamic Council backing) pressure on #Jolani & HTS.
I’m told that x4 sub-factions of #HTS have agreed to join the newly formed Jabhat Tahrir Souriya (#JTS) and at least x5 others are negotiating possible terms.

#Syria #Idlib
Read 67 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Ahrar #Turkey #Idlib #Kefraya #Gaddafi #Hezbollah #TOW #IRGC #GlobalSupport #MSM #Saddam #Fiance #Syrian #Italy #Produce #Kafranbel #Fuah #Assad #RuAF #Khashoggi #NeverForget #Syria #FoxNews #MaaretNuman #SaudiArabia

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