Thread by @BrazilBrian

For anybody with misgivings/doubts about aggressive US stance on Venezuela, I get it. A few thoughts (probably guaranteed to make everybody mad at some point but to hell with it)....

US has awful history of interventions in LatAm. Basically 3 kinds:
1) US instrumental in making it happen (Pinochet, Arbenz,etc)
2) US support helpful (Brazil 64, Argentina 76)
3) US chooses side after the fact & chooses undemocratically -notoriously after Chavez toppled in 2002

I come from a post Cold War generation of Latin Americanists that believes those days are or should be over - that Washington should support democracy and/but generally not stomp around the region like it’s still 1961 or 1985

Laugh and heckle me if you want, it’s fine. Somebody here will raise Brazil 2016 and call it a coup and me a hypocrite but anyway let me try to stay focused on subject at hand

So US stance on Venezuela for a lot of years made me... nervous. Uneasy. Because I think Bush got it wrong in 02, and Chavez *was* democratically elected several times.

And then things deteriorated under Maduro, and Venezuela *clearly* wasn’t a democracy anymore. By say 2016. Jailing opponents and rigging elections. They’re big narcos. Then the humanitarian crisis hit and you just didn’t have a heart if you weren’t appalled. BUT:

But - even then I didn’t think it was Washington’s role to be “out front,” pushing for regime change, b/c it was counterproductive- because of history. And it also would have helped Maduro because that dude loves nothing more than to argue with Tio Sam. (Chavez was the master)

So ok - why have things changed? Why do I think Trump was right yesterday? Basically the moment changed -on the ground in Venezuela.What’s happening there ISN’T ABOUT US -hard for Americans to believe sometimes -it’s Venezuelans & the region rallying behind a new figure (Guaidó)

All kinds of dynamics - appearance of this fresh 35 year old guy, more united opposition, new govts in Latin America - made this new moment possible. Meanwhile humanitarian crisis has worsened and so has exodus of millions and repression

Bottom line: Venezuela hasn’t been a democracy for years, it’s an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, millions suffering. I don’t favor any US military intervention. But joining LatAm govts (and Canada!) in recognizing Guaidó and pushing for Maduro to leave? Yeah. Despite history