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My January has been brutal. I'm still playing catch up. But with Spags signing in KC, let's do a really long thread of all the new DC hires and the #IDP consequence.
Starting in KC, the Chiefs made it to OT in the AFCCG, so they should only be looking for someone who runs a similar scheme and can hopefully put them over the top with a few minor tweaks. I'm sure Rex Ryan would've jumped into with both feet...
But they hired Steve Spagnuolo, who has run 4-3s in the past. Assuming they make the change, and almost every DC is expecting to implement his scheme rather than adapt their scheme to their personnel, so I would expect the change. Chris Jones becomes DT1 with Donald at DE.
The other winner might be Breeland Speaks. The rookie started 4 games for Houston and logged 24 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Speaks is the 2nd Day 2 draft pick KC has spent on pass rushers who were 280+, which is big for an OLB. So they may have been prepping for scheme flexibility.
Dee Ford is a UFA after a great season. That leaves Houston and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Maybe Tanoh sees a 3rd year breakout as a DE, but I wouldn't bank on it. Spags plays his guys at DE, both JPP and Vernon had 1,000 snap seasons under Spags. There will be production.
LB could be a miss. Pure guessing months in advance, I'd put Ragland as a 2-down MIKE. DOD is made for the WILL. That would leave Hitchens as a SAM in base/MIKE in sub packages, the same role AJ Klein was so meh in last season. It would be a hit to Hitchens...
Green Bay hired Matt LaFleur as HC and retained Mike Pettine at DC. This feels a bit like Vic Fangio last year. Nagy kept Fangio on, they added Mack and the Bears had the best defense in the league. Pettine has coordinated some great defenses in the past.
GB could definitely improve their defense next year, but they desperately need pass rushers. The ghost of Clay Matthews just isn't getting it done anymore. @TomDegenerate has been all over Kyler Fackrell's unrepeatable sack efficiency. NT Kenny Clark is their best pass rusher.
Speaking of Fangio, he heads to Denver. Considering Mack easily had the 2nd best season of his career under Fangio, it'll be scary for the AFC West QBs if he can raise Von Miller's game while developing Bradley Chubb.
LB will be worth watching. Fangio likes his ILBs to play every down. Todd Davis hasn't done that prior to last year. Brandon Marshall was banged up this year after typically being the guy. There are questions if he'll still be in Denver next season.
That could mean opportunity for @DFF_DWIN darling, rookie Josey Jewell. Chicago hired Chuck Pagano to replace Fangio. This feels like Vance Joseph taking over Denver's defense from Wade Phillips a few years back. Leave everything as it is and look good.
Pagano shouldn't change much. Chicago might see a slight dip this season, but I'd still expect Top 3-5. They're returning all but 1 starter and Mack makes everything so easy.
Vance Joseph is headed to the desert. The sky is falling and Chandler Jones is headed back to OLB. Except, is he? Joseph is a complete wild card. In Denver, he ran a 3-4, because you don't screw up Wade Phillips' hard work. But in his 1 season as MIA DC, he ran a 4-3.
If Joseph is content, Arizona may stay a 4-3 making Jones a sneaky player to play for in dynasty. The big question is the safeties. The Cards ran a base Big Nickel last season, with the Killer Bee's, Boston, Bethea, and Baker.
Boston is a UFA, but ARI added DJ Swearinger as an easy replacement in a role he had a few seasons back. If Joseph keeps the Big Nickel, you'll be looking at 3 top safeties. Otherwise, Bethea might be the odd man out.
Steve Wilks left the desert after one season as HC and is headed for colder environs in Cleveland.
Based on Chandler Jones' snaps this year, Myles Garrett could see a 10% decrease in snaps. He'll still be productive, but he could take a hit. It's worth watching the safety usage. As CAR's DC in 2017, the 3rd safety played 229 snaps on the season.
In Arizona, Wilks had 3 safeties top 900 snaps. Jabrill Peppers, who split snaps all season with Derrick Kindred, should see an immediate boost. Kindred could be worth a deep stash if Wilks thinks he should be on the field. Wilks is know as a CB guru, developing Josh Norman.
So keep an eye on whoever plays opposite Denzel Ward.
Gregg Williams turned down dozens of snail-mailed HC offers to run the Jets Defense under this offensive mastermind. That place is a powder keg that could go off at any moment.
But Heavens rejoice, the highly sought after scheme swap to a 4-3, OLBs transitioning to DEs. Is anything better than that? Let me tell you about Jordan Jenkins...
In his 3rd season, Jenkins hit a career high 7.0 sacks. New York has devalued pass rushers for years and their roster is a wasteland to show for it. Henry Anderson had 7.0 sacks of his own. Anderson will be relocating this offseason, just like last year when Indy swapped schemes.
Adams should thankfully stay in a similar role under Gregg. The LBs could see a boost. Williams likes to pick his guys and ride them. Coordinating the Rams D in 2016, Barron and Ogletree both topped 1,000 snaps while LB3, Cory Littleton, hit 122 on the season.
In 2017 in Cleveland, Williams had 2 LBs top 1,000 snaps while Collins/Burgess hit 980 combined. If Collins had been healthy, he probably would've topped 1,000. But NY only has 2 LBs at the moment...
Staying in the AFC East, Miami is the second team in as many years to take NE's DC. Does that make Bill Belicheck the defensive version of Sean McVay? I'll ask my wife who she finds more attractive.
Since Belicheck runs his own D, Brian Flores will be a bit of a Wild Card. I expect a 4-3. Miami needs pass rushers badly. Reshad Jones is likely headed out of town. In NE, not much will change. Belicheck will run the D next season and bring up a DC who will get a HC gig in 2020.
That leaves Tampa and Cincy. Two teams likely headed for 3-4s. Todd Bowles signed with Arians for the Bucs after a few rough years in NYC. JPP avoided the OLB-designation last year by being traded to the Bucs. Can he pull similar magic this season?
I would say Tampa doesn't have great personnel for a 3-4, but that would imply their personnel is better suited for a 4-3... This front 7 needs a complete overhaul. McCoy is potentially headed out of town. That leaves Vea at NT. Nassib could almost stay at DE in the 3-4.
At LB, Kwon is a UFA and there were questions whether Beckwith would play again after an offseason car accident last year. David looks like the big man in the middle.
The Bengals are leaning towards Jack Del Rio who runs a 3-4 base. This could be better for Lawson. With HC Marvis Lewis gone, hopefully that means Michael Johnson is gone too. Hubbard and Willis would likely be OLBs. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dunlap at 3-4 DE.
LB is a mess and your guess is probably better than mine. Keep in mind, they spent a 3rd on Malik Jefferson last season. The off-ball LB class last year has already proven prolific. Jefferson has a non-zero chance of being legit.
