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Here's a little thread with a few thoughts about the 2020 primaries in regards to Bernie Sanders, with nothing to do with policy or ideology. Just horse race stuff. 1/
Among people who are disposed to vote in Democratic primaries, there's a certain subset that were inclined to vote against Hillary Clinton. Fair or not, the Clintons are still divisive, even among Democrats. There are still Kennedy Democrats who hold grudges, for instance. 2/
There are also, like it or not, Democratic primary voters who are more inclined to vote for a man over a woman. There are others who, by nature, are inclined to vote against "the favorite" because they pride themselves on "marching to the beat of a different drummer." 3/
All to say, among Democratic primary voters, there is a subset that we can call "not Hillary" voters for whatever reason. People who were inclined to look for any candidate other than Hillary. 4/
In 2008, Barack Obama benefited from this "not Hillary" group of voters. I'm not saying that all Obama supporters were anti-Hillary or that he encouraged it. Just that the group exists and was drawn to him. 5/
If you'll recall, early 2008 was basically a three-horse race, with Obama and John Edwards each drawing from the "not Hillary" pool. Once Edwards' campaign imploded, that vote went to Obama, and was likely instrumental in him winning a very tight race. 6/
Now, Obama is very, very good at this, and was able to draw off a lot more support among average Democratic voters. But it's hard to think that he didn't benefit from the built-in "not Hillary" vote. 7/
In 2016, it was always a 2-horse race. There were no other serious candidates besides Bernie and Hillary, so the "not Hillary" vote went pretty much to Bernie. Bernie isn't nearly as skillful a politician as Obama, so he didn't peel off as much support from other Dem groups. 8/
So the "not Hillary" vote wasn't enough to put him over the top. But it did inflate his numbers...that is, I think Bernie outperformed in 2016 because he was the only other option. Given a larger field, things might have been very different for him. 2020 may test that idea. 9/
In 2020, we'll have a few other dynamics. First, a larger field of strong candidates. Bernie has some built-in support from 2016, and name recognition. He goes in as one of the favorites. But people who voted for Bernie but weren't die-hard Bernieacs will have other options. 10/
Second, of course, is that Hillary isn't running. Democrats who don't like Clintons will have plenty of options to choose from, as will Democrats who don't particularly want to vote for a woman, whether they acknowledge that or not. 11/
My guess is that in a crowded field of legitimate contenders, Bernie will have a hard time holding on to many of these casual Bernie supporters from 2016. There will plenty of other candidates to choose from. 12/
Also, of course, Bernie will have to deal with a whole new subset of Democratic voters -- the "not Bernie" voter. And there are plenty of us out there. We're the people who are inclined to vote for anyone other than Bernie Sanders. 13/
Now, the "not Bernie" vote will likely be split among 3-4-5 different candidates, especially early in the primaries. But as things progress, a favorite or two will emerge and the "not Bernie" vote will coalesce there. 14/
If Bernie is still competitive at that point. My guess is that in the absence of Hillary Clinton, a large chunk of people who voted for Bernie in 2016 will move on, and he may not do as well in the early primaries as he might hope. 15/
I think it will come down to how quickly the "not Bernie" vote coalesces around another candidate (or two) and how many of his casual supporters Bernie is able to hold onto. My guess is that the latter will be hard for him, especially. 16/
Because this is shaping up to be a change election, and Bernie has now become "more of the same." The same guy who ran last time. And people will be looking for someone new...and there will be a lot of new to choose from. 17/
As a sidelight, I think this will hurt Biden if he runs, too. He's "more of the same" in a year when people are looking for new blood. 18/
All to say, my gut feeling is that Bernie will underperform in 2020...and will likely significantly underperform. Even in the Iowa caucuses, which should be home court for him, he'll have to deal with 3-4-5 opponents. It won't be as easy to dominate the room. 19/
If I had to bet right now, I'd bet that Bernie won't be a serious contender after the first run of primaries. He'll be in trouble after South Carolina. He might linger, but I think his best shot was 2016, and he simply doesn't have the juice to dominate a larger field. 20/20
Addendum: I'd guess that the number of people who supported Bernie in 2016 because he was the only alternative is significant, and maybe bigger than the number who supported him because they love Bernie and will always vote Bernie. And those casual supporters will move on. 21/20
