Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ky06
Most recents (21)
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
One of Kentucky's senators weighs in on the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol ⬇️
.@RepAndyBarr, a Republican from the #KY06, said the insurrection at the Capitol “needs to stop NOW.”
A staff assistant for @HalRogersKY5, a Republican from the #KY05, told me the Congressman has safely evacuated to his office.
1. 🗳️🇺🇸 En este hilo, desde el equipo Sur, para el proyecto #Destino3N, nos centraremos en la contienda senatorial de Kentucky. Las encuestas muestran una elección relativamente competida. A continuación mi compañero @franzspace y yo os presentamos a los candidatos.
2. Mitch McConnell, AKA “Moscow Mitch” o “The Grim Reaper” (como se llamó a sí mismo en tiempos de Obama) es el líder de la mayoría del Senado desde 2015, y uno de los aliados más importantes de Trump (vota con él en el 94% de las ocasiones).
3. Veterano de la política y figura clave en la estrategia electoral del GOP, McConnell, natural de Alabama, pero kentuckiano por adopción, siempre ha tenido inquietudes políticas. Participó en la marcha sobre Washington en 1963 y trabajó para diversos senadores y campañas en KY.
Ok, I've finally seen enough: Amy McGrath (D) has defeated Charles Booker (D) in the #KYSEN primary.
One thing we'll never know: what the outcome would have been if McGrath (D) hadn't banked such a large lead in absentee ballots. #KYSEN
Improved Dave's #Redistricting App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020). @davesredist @mikemathieu #ElectionTwitter 1/27
@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…
@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Getting going at @CBSNews Decision Desk. I'll mainly be focused on House races. Hoping to use this thread to post interesting analyses from the desk
Polls are closed in #KY6, a House race we're watching closely. We've been expecting this suburban district to be competitive. Votes are trickling in...
While we wait for votes to be counted, here's a tidbit from the National Exit Poll, which is based on in-person interviews of voters as they leave their polling place. Trump isn't on the ballot this year, but he's on (about two-thirds of) voters' minds
ELECTION NIGHT THREAD: This will be my thread for the night, starting with this great story from @katherinemiller, with its hour-by-hour accounting of what is going on tonight and when it's (likely) going to happen. buzzfeednews.com/article/kather…
And ... polls are closed in Kentucky and Indiana.
NOTE: As happens every election, there'll be a couple polling places/counties in several states that stay open later due to issues from earlier in the day. So, check your specific county/polling place if you need to vote! For ex, Monroe County in Indiana: idsnews.com/article/2018/1…
🚨MY MASTER THREAD of #Midterm2018 results analysis, including an array of data dives. Will the country chose to repudiate president Trump? Health care instead of the wall? RT & strap in, folks, tonight could be a wild ride. We get the first batch of results at around 6 PM ET.
20 minutes
I made a list of the 55 House districts to watch, w/ the 32 key seats for Dems to win a net +23 to win the House. It’s also a viewing guide, organized roughly on poll closing times. (Based on @CookPolitical categories, @FiveThirtyEight, and the Hillary 25) shugerblog.com/2018/11/06/201…
2/ I'll post analysis of Senate and Governorships. Also watch the Attorneys General and State Supreme Court.
Texas, vote for my friend Justin @NelsonForTexas against an *indicted* and corrupt incumbent!
Justin is the real deal - super smart, devoted, hard working, progressive.
Texas, vote for my friend Justin @NelsonForTexas against an *indicted* and corrupt incumbent!
Justin is the real deal - super smart, devoted, hard working, progressive.
3/ Michigan, vote for @sbagen Sam Bagenstos for Supreme Court!
I can't imagine a better state supreme court justice. Brilliant scholar, rule-of-law defender, progressive perspective.
Michigan's Supreme Court has made huge decisions over the past decade. It needs Sam's wisdom.
I can't imagine a better state supreme court justice. Brilliant scholar, rule-of-law defender, progressive perspective.
Michigan's Supreme Court has made huge decisions over the past decade. It needs Sam's wisdom.
#MidTerms2018 #GUBERNATORIAL
#AKGOP #MikeDunleavy 🇺🇸
#FLGOP #RonDeSantis 🇺🇸
#GAGOP #BrianKemp 🇺🇸
#IAGOP #KimReynolds 🇺🇸
#KSGOP #KrisKobach 🇺🇸
#MEGOP #ShawnMoody 🇺🇸
#NVGOP #AdamLaxalt 🇺🇸
#OHGOP #MikeDeWine 🇺🇸
#MAGA #KAG2018 #VOTERED #REDWAVE 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
#AKGOP #MikeDunleavy 🇺🇸
#FLGOP #RonDeSantis 🇺🇸
#GAGOP #BrianKemp 🇺🇸
#IAGOP #KimReynolds 🇺🇸
#KSGOP #KrisKobach 🇺🇸
#MEGOP #ShawnMoody 🇺🇸
#NVGOP #AdamLaxalt 🇺🇸
#OHGOP #MikeDeWine 🇺🇸
#MAGA #KAG2018 #VOTERED #REDWAVE 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
#MidTerms2018 #SENATE
#AZGOP #MarthaMcSally 🇺🇸
#FLGOP #RickScott 🇺🇸
#INGOP #MikeBraun 🇺🇸
#MOGOP #JoshHawley 🇺🇸
#NVGOP #DeanHeller 🇺🇸
#MAGA #KAG2018 #VOTERED #REDWAVE 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
#AZGOP #MarthaMcSally 🇺🇸
#FLGOP #RickScott 🇺🇸
#INGOP #MikeBraun 🇺🇸
#MOGOP #JoshHawley 🇺🇸
#NVGOP #DeanHeller 🇺🇸
#MAGA #KAG2018 #VOTERED #REDWAVE 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
1/
.
Newsday --- October 19th, 2018 --- Fri
Nov 6th, 2018
18 Days Until Mid-Terms
Daily Reminder That Democrats...
1- Are Socialists
2- Want your guns taken away and your family killed.
3- Protects millions of Mexican Illegals
who will hurt your daughters (Mollie Tibbetts)
.
Newsday --- October 19th, 2018 --- Fri
Nov 6th, 2018
18 Days Until Mid-Terms
Daily Reminder That Democrats...
1- Are Socialists
2- Want your guns taken away and your family killed.
3- Protects millions of Mexican Illegals
who will hurt your daughters (Mollie Tibbetts)
1/
.
Newsday --- October 19th, 2018 --- Fri
Nov 6th, 2018
18 Days Until Mid-Terms
Daily Reminder That Democrats...
1- Are Socialists
2- Want your guns taken away and your family killed.
3- Protects millions of Mexican Illegals
who will hurt your daughters (Mollie Tibbetts)
.
Newsday --- October 19th, 2018 --- Fri
Nov 6th, 2018
18 Days Until Mid-Terms
Daily Reminder That Democrats...
1- Are Socialists
2- Want your guns taken away and your family killed.
3- Protects millions of Mexican Illegals
who will hurt your daughters (Mollie Tibbetts)
1/
.
Newsday --- October 19th, 2018 --- Fri
Nov 6th, 2018
18 Days Until Mid-Terms
I am adopting "The Wictor Block" Rule:
Be smart/playful/sincere....Feels Good Man
You come at me too hard and aggressively....looking for a response:
I will Block and Move On.
.
Newsday --- October 19th, 2018 --- Fri
Nov 6th, 2018
18 Days Until Mid-Terms
I am adopting "The Wictor Block" Rule:
Be smart/playful/sincere....Feels Good Man
You come at me too hard and aggressively....looking for a response:
I will Block and Move On.
1/
.
Newsday --- October 9th, 2018 --- Tues
Nov 6th, 2018
28 Days Until Mid-Terms
Daily Reminder That Democrats...
1- Are Socialists
2- Want your guns taken away and your family killed.
3- Protects millions of Mexican Illegals
who will hurt your daughters (Mollie Tibbetts)
.
Newsday --- October 9th, 2018 --- Tues
Nov 6th, 2018
28 Days Until Mid-Terms
Daily Reminder That Democrats...
1- Are Socialists
2- Want your guns taken away and your family killed.
3- Protects millions of Mexican Illegals
who will hurt your daughters (Mollie Tibbetts)
1/
.
Newsday --- October 9th, 2018 --- Tues
Nov 6th, 2018
28 Days Until Mid-Terms
Daily Reminder That Democrats...
1- Are Socialists
2- Want your guns taken away and your family killed.
3- Protects millions of Mexican Illegals
who will hurt your daughters (Mollie Tibbetts)
.
Newsday --- October 9th, 2018 --- Tues
Nov 6th, 2018
28 Days Until Mid-Terms
Daily Reminder That Democrats...
1- Are Socialists
2- Want your guns taken away and your family killed.
3- Protects millions of Mexican Illegals
who will hurt your daughters (Mollie Tibbetts)
2/
.
Newsday --- October 9th, 2018 --- Tues
Nov 6th, 2018
28 Days Until Mid-Terms
I am adopting "The Wictor Block" Rule:
Be smart/playful/sincere....Feels Good Man
You come at me too hard and aggressively....looking for a response:
I will Block and Move On.
.
Newsday --- October 9th, 2018 --- Tues
Nov 6th, 2018
28 Days Until Mid-Terms
I am adopting "The Wictor Block" Rule:
Be smart/playful/sincere....Feels Good Man
You come at me too hard and aggressively....looking for a response:
I will Block and Move On.
McGrath (D)’s problem is that she’s well past the point of diminishing returns in a market as cheap as Lexington & even risks fatiguing #KY06 voters (see Ossoff, Jon).
By contrast, there are still a lot of races without star candidates that are *underfunded* for Dems. Dems risk leaving a few of them on the table on Election Night.
This is precisely what happened to ‘17 VA Dems, who *underestimated* the wave and failed to adequately fund a bunch of 2nd-tier Dems who fell just short while many of the best-funded won by a mile.
🚨“CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND” THREAD🚨
As Green Day once sang: “Do You Know Your Enemy?”
If not, we need to have a talk about the Congressional Leadership Fund (@CLFSuperPac).
THEY ARE THE ENEMY of the 2018 Midterm Elections and they WILL cost us seats IF we let them.
As Green Day once sang: “Do You Know Your Enemy?”
If not, we need to have a talk about the Congressional Leadership Fund (@CLFSuperPac).
THEY ARE THE ENEMY of the 2018 Midterm Elections and they WILL cost us seats IF we let them.
The CLF is a right-wing SuperPAC spearheaded by Paul Ryan. It’s goal is to lie about and smear as many Democratic candidates as possible.
They have raised more than $100Million from billionaires looking to keep the GOP in power.
opensecrets.org/news/2018/08/w…
They have raised more than $100Million from billionaires looking to keep the GOP in power.
opensecrets.org/news/2018/08/w…
Back in May, Paul Ryan personally solicited billionaire Sheldon Adelson for $30Million for the CLF. He made the pitch and then walked out of the room so that someone else could make the actual “ask”, in order to avoid campaign finance violations.
esquire.com/news-politics/…
esquire.com/news-politics/…
Holy crap. The new Sabato Crystal Ball House ratings change is...big.
This is the first time the Crystal Ball has given Democrats better than 50/50 odds of taking the House. And there is a LOT to unpack here.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
This is the first time the Crystal Ball has given Democrats better than 50/50 odds of taking the House. And there is a LOT to unpack here.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Here are Sabato's topline changes.
5 races are no longer Safe R: #IA04, #IN02, #IN09, #PA16, #TX31
3 races shift from Likely R to Lean R: #AR02, #FL16, #NM02
9 more R seats are now Tossups: #IA03, #IL06, #KY06, #MI08, #OH01, #OH12, #TX07, #WV03
And #FL13 is now Safe D.
5 races are no longer Safe R: #IA04, #IN02, #IN09, #PA16, #TX31
3 races shift from Likely R to Lean R: #AR02, #FL16, #NM02
9 more R seats are now Tossups: #IA03, #IL06, #KY06, #MI08, #OH01, #OH12, #TX07, #WV03
And #FL13 is now Safe D.
Here are a few takeaways:
-White nationalist Rep. Steve King has a credible challenge
-IN and WV have competitive House races (and the extra attention from Ds could help their senators here)
-#OH12 special is REALLY close
-Dem women vets (McGrath, Hegar) are kicking ass.
-White nationalist Rep. Steve King has a credible challenge
-IN and WV have competitive House races (and the extra attention from Ds could help their senators here)
-#OH12 special is REALLY close
-Dem women vets (McGrath, Hegar) are kicking ass.
THREAD
Q2 Fundraising is over, and Democrats did a great job!
But I was chatting with @ybbkaren and an interesting question came up:
With SO MANY great candidates, how do we decide who needs donations the most? Many are worthy, but our personal funds are not unlimited.
Q2 Fundraising is over, and Democrats did a great job!
But I was chatting with @ybbkaren and an interesting question came up:
With SO MANY great candidates, how do we decide who needs donations the most? Many are worthy, but our personal funds are not unlimited.
So I came up with an idea for my own list of Dems who need $$$ based upon the following criteria:
*They have won their primary
*They are trying to flip “swing” GOP-held seats (per @CookPolitical ratings)
*They are behind their GOP opponents in “Cash on Hand” (per @OpenSecretsDC)
*They have won their primary
*They are trying to flip “swing” GOP-held seats (per @CookPolitical ratings)
*They are behind their GOP opponents in “Cash on Hand” (per @OpenSecretsDC)
That’s not to say that other Democrats in swing districts are not worthy. They are. But the following, from a strategic $$$ perspective, might be the best place to donate *for now*.
This is the list of those House candidates, and their donation links, based on that criteria:
This is the list of those House candidates, and their donation links, based on that criteria:
Coming back from the holiday and catching up on the news? Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed!
Republicans are standing by while Trump sabotages health care markets and raises premiums AGAIN! #ACA #ProtectOurCare nytimes.com/2018/07/07/us/…
GOP candidate says something racist? Say NO to racism by voting for @PaulDavisKS!
"While CNN has rated the race to replace Jenkins as leaning Republican, Democrats have lined up behind former Kansas House Minority Leader Paul Davis to flip the district."
cnn.com/2018/07/07/pol…
"While CNN has rated the race to replace Jenkins as leaning Republican, Democrats have lined up behind former Kansas House Minority Leader Paul Davis to flip the district."
cnn.com/2018/07/07/pol…
🚨 Please share broadly! As usual, the Kochs are dumping tons of money into GOP candidates...especially into *critical swing districts* we need to flip.
I've threaded links below to the Democratic challengers in these races. Please RT and support them! /1
truth-out.org/news/item/4458…
I've threaded links below to the Democratic challengers in these races. Please RT and support them! /1
truth-out.org/news/item/4458…
I focused the list of NOMINEES. These are Democrats in swing districts who have already won their primaries and are facing off against Koch-infused Republicans in fall.
#IL06
GOP Koch Candidate: Peter Roskam
Dem Challenger: Sean Casten @SeanCasten
castenforcongress.com
GOP Koch Candidate: Peter Roskam
Dem Challenger: Sean Casten @SeanCasten
castenforcongress.com
Hey #Kentucky
Who are the Democratic Candidates #PrimaryWinners running for office in your District?
#Midterms2018 #VoteBlue
Here's a THREAD of All Dems
With links to Websites & Voter Info Links
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Register by Oct 9 here vrsws.sos.ky.gov/ovrweb/govoteky
#BlueWaveKY
Who are the Democratic Candidates #PrimaryWinners running for office in your District?
#Midterms2018 #VoteBlue
Here's a THREAD of All Dems
With links to Websites & Voter Info Links
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Register by Oct 9 here vrsws.sos.ky.gov/ovrweb/govoteky
#BlueWaveKY
REGISTER TO VOTE in #KENTUCKY
Online Application here: vrsws.sos.ky.gov/ovrweb/
or download voter registration card here: elect.ky.gov/SiteCollection…
In person at County Clerk's office here sos.wv.gov/public-service…
KEEP verifying Registration Status here:
vrsws.sos.ky.gov/vic/
Online Application here: vrsws.sos.ky.gov/ovrweb/
or download voter registration card here: elect.ky.gov/SiteCollection…
In person at County Clerk's office here sos.wv.gov/public-service…
KEEP verifying Registration Status here:
vrsws.sos.ky.gov/vic/
ABSENTEE VOTING #KENTUCKY
#Midterms2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot from County Clerks by October 30th:
Here: app.sos.ky.gov/elections/cand…
Or apply for ballot here: absentee.vote.org/?state=Kentucky
Overseas? Military?
Apply here elect.ky.gov/CONTACTCOUNTYC…
Or here overseasvotefoundation.org/vote/VoterInfo…
#Midterms2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot from County Clerks by October 30th:
Here: app.sos.ky.gov/elections/cand…
Or apply for ballot here: absentee.vote.org/?state=Kentucky
Overseas? Military?
Apply here elect.ky.gov/CONTACTCOUNTYC…
Or here overseasvotefoundation.org/vote/VoterInfo…
Hey #Kentucky
Who are the Democrats running for office in your District?
Here's a
THREAD of All
Democratic Candidates in #PRIMARIES #BlueWaveKY
With links to their websites.
VOTE MAY 22, 2018
Voter Registration Deadline April 23rd
Register to vote here vrsws.sos.ky.gov/ovrweb/govoteky
Who are the Democrats running for office in your District?
Here's a
THREAD of All
Democratic Candidates in #PRIMARIES #BlueWaveKY
With links to their websites.
VOTE MAY 22, 2018
Voter Registration Deadline April 23rd
Register to vote here vrsws.sos.ky.gov/ovrweb/govoteky
Voting in Kentucky
Online Application vrsws.sos.ky.gov/ovrweb/
or download voter registration card here: elect.ky.gov/SiteCollection…
In person at County Clerk's office sos.wv.gov/public-service…
KEEP verifying Registration Status here:
vrsws.sos.ky.gov/vic/
Online Application vrsws.sos.ky.gov/ovrweb/
or download voter registration card here: elect.ky.gov/SiteCollection…
In person at County Clerk's office sos.wv.gov/public-service…
KEEP verifying Registration Status here:
vrsws.sos.ky.gov/vic/
Apply for Absentee Ballot from County Clerks by May 15th:
Here: app.sos.ky.gov/elections/cand…
Or apply for ballot here: absentee.vote.org/?state=Kentucky
Overseas? Military? Absentee Ballot due by May 21
Apply here elect.ky.gov/CONTACTCOUNTYC…
Or here overseasvotefoundation.org/vote/VoterInfo…
Here: app.sos.ky.gov/elections/cand…
Or apply for ballot here: absentee.vote.org/?state=Kentucky
Overseas? Military? Absentee Ballot due by May 21
Apply here elect.ky.gov/CONTACTCOUNTYC…
Or here overseasvotefoundation.org/vote/VoterInfo…
