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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
If this story is correct the PM is prepared for business to implement no-deal contingency plans and leave the UK, and people and business to suffer ongoing anxieties, in the mistaken belief threatening no-deal provides negotiating leverage thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/82…
There is not the slightest piece of evidence the UK has yet obtained a single advantage by not ruling out no-deal. Mostly because international negotiations are about trying to find a landing zone rather than threatening walkouts. Also the EU never found the threat credible
Another odd story - that the UK want to write into the Withdrawal Agreement that the UK will follow EU rules in the backstop - with some role for the NI assembly. Not sure the ERG will be delighted with following all EUY rules in a permanent backstop politico.eu/article/mays-b…
Put it another way, I'm not sure we've made much progress. We're still talking about delaying Brexit, no-deal, or attacking key EU red lines. Nobody is talking (again!) about what can practically be done. Though @anandMenon1 spots a fragment of hope
I still the most likely outcome will be Brexit on something close to the PM's deal, but which almost all MPs will immediately denounce as a bad deal that they were forced to support. Setting up more years of bickering.

MPs need to own Brexit or disown it.
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I have written again on why the Malthouse compromise is not a realistic proposal, but ahead of the latest Parliamentary debate let's also pick up some of the other strands of Brexit... theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
1. It is correct that the PM getting a majority in Parliament strengthens her position in negotiations, but only if it is for something that is realistic. This is not, as has been made clear repeatedly - here for example is an article from Sept 2017 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
2. The EU has said that the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be reopened. I interpret this to mean fundamentals will not be renegotiated. But I expect specific details could be changed if this was the price of agreement - that's the usual late agreement.
Read 9 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Those waking up to the exciting news that Conservative Party MPs have agreed among themselves on a Brexit deal are going to be awfully disappointed to learn that said plan is almost certainly a non-starter with the EU and has been widely debunked
One of the sources for the apparent Malthouse compromise is the document 'A Better Deal' which was the latest in a long line of documents from right wing thinktanks to pretend that you can have manage a border entirely with technology. Why have others not done so then?
The idea of an immediate Free Trade Agreement is a joke - yes of course any trade expert can knock up a permanent agreement in a lunchtime, so why do you think FTAs take 3-6 years to agree? Because there are hugely complex issues which will have a long term economic impact
Read 7 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Bold statement, implying everything the EU has said about the Withdrawal Agreement being final is not true. Seems on the face of it unlikely.
Starts to look like a rerun of the Salzburg summit fiasco, where the PM is absolutely convinced she can secure change to an EU red line, this time if MPs show backing.
Still this unless we all stand to be amazed.
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Here are 180 factual, fully-sourced examples of the impact Brexit is already having on the UK. Jobs going, investment drying up, companies moving assets to the EU, or redomiciling. All happening as Government burns through £billions chasing a no deal Brexit it doesn't have to.
The Government has spent £4.2 billion pounds on Brexit preparations (£2.2 billion in previous Budgets, plus an additional £2 billion in the most recent Budget.) 1/180
gov.uk/government/new…
EU citizens will be forced to register to stay in the UK after Brexit (deadline is June 2021). The system, which cost the Government £175 million, will have to cope with over 3,500,000 applications, or several thousand a day on average. 2/180
news.sky.com/story/eu-settl…
Read 182 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
More real-life consequences of Brexit (to go with the 140+ I've posted previously) 1/26
1,000 police officers from England and Scotland being trained for redeployment to Northern Ireland in the event of a no deal Brexit.
standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
Aspen Insurance Group is planning to open a new insurance subsidiary in Dublin to service EEA clients after Brexit. It expects the new subsidiary to be operational by Q1, 2019. 2/26
aspeninsurance.co.uk/News-Items/Gro…
Toyota and Nissan, which currently certify their vehicles in the UK, are planning to apply for certifications in EU27 countries to ensure that UK-produced vehicles can still be sold in the EU after Brexit. 3/26
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Busin…
Read 28 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. One recurrent feature of modern media is that it is only ever capable of dealing with one story at a time and according to its own priorities and values. The big story, had we a remotely adult media, should have been the Commission's no deal contingency plans. #Brexit thread.
2. Instead we're getting endless blether about Corbyn. There's been some coverage of the Commission's plans but the media now thinks that story is done and dusted. It is now old news, and they won't revisit it until after Christmas, if at all.
3. Without adequate scrutiny it will simply pass into the ERG armory of deceptions, whereby they will use to to claim we can have a "managed no deal". This is masterful propaganda - turning a negative into a positive.
Read 16 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Mark the date! December 18, 2018 is the day the UK Government finally lost its senses completely.

“Cabinet also agreed to recommend businesses ensure they are similarly prepared enacting their own no-deal plans.”

Yes, that’s right. Govt is actively going to advise businesses to
carry out their no deal contingency plans *right now*!

Expect a deluge of job losses, investment cuts, spending ramped down, assets being relocated, a white-hot battle for warehouse space etc etc.

All over the COMPLETELY AVOIDABLE no deal Brexit scenario.
Want to know what to expect? Here’s a tiny taste, based on what’s already happened...
Read 3 tweets
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Alexander
@37paday
1/ Let’s talk about trade
2/ Some of the arguments made in favour of Brexit are the UK’s ability to negotiate its own trade deals, most growth will come from outside the EU, the EU is “protectionist” and slow at negotiating trade deals.
3/ As we rapidly approach 29 March 2019 where the UK will have no trade deals to its name & is asking the EU to include the UK in its FTAs (& stay in the single market & customs union in all but name but with no influence) during the transition, the UK is not in a great position
Read 63 tweets
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Open Europe
@OpenEurope
See thread below for key points from this morning's @CommonsEUexit hearing 👇
Sir Chris Wormald, Permanent Secretary, Department of Health: “health has not been a huge issue of contention in our [UK’s] dealings with the EU... would see it as their responsibility that vulnerable people are catered for regardless of the outcome.”
Sir Chris Wormald: “We have asked the pharmaceutical industry to create a buffer stock… We are pleased with their response… But in an incredibly complex supply chain it remains very challenging.”
Read 36 tweets

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