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I have written again on why the Malthouse compromise is not a realistic proposal, but ahead of the latest Parliamentary debate let's also pick up some of the other strands of Brexit... theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
1. It is correct that the PM getting a majority in Parliament strengthens her position in negotiations, but only if it is for something that is realistic. This is not, as has been made clear repeatedly - here for example is an article from Sept 2017 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
2. The EU has said that the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be reopened. I interpret this to mean fundamentals will not be renegotiated. But I expect specific details could be changed if this was the price of agreement - that's the usual late agreement.
3. But as @GeorginaEWright continually points out, changing any detail runs the risk that the EU will want something in return. And their subjects would be uncomfortable e.g. Gibraltar, fish. There's no freebies in international negotiations
4. The Cooper / Boles plan also faces an EU problem - we do not know if extension of Article 50 is going to be allowed, and again it may not come for free. Best guess is 3 month ok, any longer problematic. We may need it anyway for Brexit legislation
5. However if Cooper-Boles does not pass then no-deal becomes the most likely outcome - because the PM's only position is a fundamental rewrite that the EU says no to, she has left no leeway for smaller compromises changing voting
6. Does the EU fear no-deal? Yes, but they think the UK will suffer far more, and will quickly be back for an agreement with no leverage. I'm not convinced the EU are right, but right now I don't see EU voices arguing that no-deal must be prevented
7. Final note on UK-EU - the lack of trust from the EU. They simply think the UK is failing to make a choice, and are losing all patience. With a bit of luck there are trusted intermediaries, we don't know, but that's out of keeping with the PM's style
8. Cooper-Boles then is the one to watch. We don't know the path the PM takes if it passes,but it will be hard to keep the same path /end
