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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 7 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Those waking up to the exciting news that Conservative Party MPs have agreed among themselves on a Brexit deal are going to be awfully disappointed to learn that said plan is almost certainly a non-starter with the EU and has been widely debunked
One of the sources for the apparent Malthouse compromise is the document 'A Better Deal' which was the latest in a long line of documents from right wing thinktanks to pretend that you can have manage a border entirely with technology. Why have others not done so then?
The idea of an immediate Free Trade Agreement is a joke - yes of course any trade expert can knock up a permanent agreement in a lunchtime, so why do you think FTAs take 3-6 years to agree? Because there are hugely complex issues which will have a long term economic impact
A list of trade professionals prepared to put ideology before credibility. Too early to canvass but I know of not a single one of the fully neutral @UKTradeForum experts who is likely to endorse this plan - when any of us do, you're probably in business
The idea of an interim Article 24 WTO agreement pending a comprehensive agreement is described here by @CoppetainPU - in an interim agreement pending a full agreement all WTO members could demand changes... uktradeforum.net/2019/01/26/why…
Obviously the overall effect of this plan is to scrap the backstop. Which as the EU and Ireland have said repeatedly is not on offer. I am very surprised that so many Conservative MPs have apparently ignored this obvious flaw
Should MPs and media want a detailed briefing on why this plan doesn't work, and an exploration of the options for the future, neutral trade experts from @UKTradeForum and many other institutions such as doubtless Susses University stand ready to help
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Increasingly thinking the Brady amendment and the announcement of the next vote on Feb 13 has taken the importance out of today's vote. No incentive on EU to do anything but hold firm, and wait for next steps.
Brady is too vague to mean anything, the Malthouse whatever too ERG dominated to be acceptable to the EU or probably conservative moderates, so we're going to be back in two weeks time for more.
Two weeks during which little progress will be made on any Brexit legislation, and business will have only 6 weeks to be ready for no-deal. Requesting extension nearly inevitable, so it will be in keeping with the Brexit farce for MPs to vote against it.
Read 7 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I have written again on why the Malthouse compromise is not a realistic proposal, but ahead of the latest Parliamentary debate let's also pick up some of the other strands of Brexit... theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
1. It is correct that the PM getting a majority in Parliament strengthens her position in negotiations, but only if it is for something that is realistic. This is not, as has been made clear repeatedly - here for example is an article from Sept 2017 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
2. The EU has said that the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be reopened. I interpret this to mean fundamentals will not be renegotiated. But I expect specific details could be changed if this was the price of agreement - that's the usual late agreement.
Read 9 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Bold statement, implying everything the EU has said about the Withdrawal Agreement being final is not true. Seems on the face of it unlikely.
Starts to look like a rerun of the Salzburg summit fiasco, where the PM is absolutely convinced she can secure change to an EU red line, this time if MPs show backing.
Still this unless we all stand to be amazed.
Read 7 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
After a public shout out of “no way!” to renegotiating the #Brexjt backstop/withdrawal agreement, the EU now waits for the PM to come to Brussels 1
Parliament appeared to lob the ball back in the EU’s court last night, uniting(ish) around a request for alternatives to the backstop BUT the EU is preparing to chuck to ball back pronto, with the question to the PM: what alternative do you have worked out? 2
Expect the EU to stand firm for now and for some uncomfortable ‘negotiations’. Brussels deadline is 29 March whereas the PM has self-imposed a deadline of mid-Feb. The EU won’t rush to help her with that one 3
Read 9 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
Read 9 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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Stuart Budd #PeoplesVote 🇬🇧🇪🇺❄️
@StuartBudd1
#FBPE is on the same side as:
TUC
Unite, GMB & Community Unions
CBI, IoD, FSB, BCC & EEF
Labour NW & West Midland MPs
Majority of Labour MP's
Majority of UK population
UK public
Majority of Labour members
LibDem
Green Party
NUS
On: #CustomsUnion #SingleMarket & #PeoplesVote
The transport union, TSSA:
"The left should unite now and come together to stop this Tory act of war against our class...

Supporting Tory/UKIP Brexit is unacceptable class collaboration.
Full stop.

I like this. This is fighting talk

Ref:
tssa.org.uk/en/whats-new/n…

#StopBrexit !!
TSSA General Secretary, Manuel Cortes:

"Our focus is our people, their rights and those of their families, which includes retaining their ability to move across EU borders freely”.

TSSA was and is in favour of remaining in the EU.

tssa.org.uk/en/Your-union/…

#FBPE
#StopBrexit
Read 37 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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