Thread by @DawieScholtz

1/ So I've completed my preliminary modelling for the elections. I'll be tweeting my expectations as they currently stand province-by-province.

For today, I'll start with an interesting one: The Western Cape!

High-level expectation: DA holds at 50%+, but with reduced majority

2/ Let's start with some history:

DA vs. ANC in the Western Cape in recent elections:
2011: 58-34 (DA)
2014: 57-34 (DA)
2016: 64-27 (DA)

Very strong 2016 DA results because:
- HUGE DA base turnout
- DA inroads in townships
- Almost-unanimous white bloc vote for the DA (95%)

3/ It's worth mentioning that the DA has been gaining ground in the townships in the Western Cape in recent elections.

All townships in the Western Cape, DA vs ANC:
2011: 5-89 (ANC)
2014: 4-86 (ANC)
2016: 10-78 (ANC)

This obviously erodes the ANC % in the Western Cape.

4/ So what to expect in May!?

The by-elections and polling suggests two key trends that will hurt the DA:
- The DA is losing some coloured voters to a range of alternatives
- Ramaphosa is popular in the WC townships and may claw back some support

How big will they be though?

5/ My best-guess assumptions right now given everything we know now:

- White vote and turnout a little weaker for the DA
- 10% swing away from the DA amongst coloured voters in WC
- 2-3% swing away from the DA amongst black voters in WC

6/ Therefore, most rational expectation right now for WC:

A range of potential outcomes for the DA from the low to mid 50s.

DISCLAIMER: This is based on unscientific 'best-guesses' for various unknown variables, informed by polling and by-elections. Not a formal prediction.