Thread by @toluogunlesi

Never in PDP’s 20-Year history have they gone into a presidential campaign with State Governors as unbothered as the current set. If you know anything about the PDP - and about Nigeria really- it is that Presidential campaigns tend to ride largely on the back of Governors
#Thread

Governors are the most powerful set of politicians in the Nigerian democracy, after the President, for obvious reasons - they control half of all Revenues accruing to the Federation. PDP, as a veteran ruling party, quickly mastered the art of ‘managing’ its Governors.

The reason Atiku almost upstaged OBJ in 2003 was because he had the PDP Governors lined up firmly behind him. Obasanjo was a rattled man, and reportedly had to BEG to get a second-term ticket. The Governors could easily have had him dethroned. They - Govs - were/are The Party!

Governors decide who wins the presidential primaries, mobilize funding for campaigns in States, pull strings. That’s what PDP has been used to. Now, for the first time in history, they have Govs who are not only a minority but also largely unenthusiastic about the Pres Campaign.

Show me one PDP Governor who is enthusiastic about their Presidential candidates and campaign generally. Just one. For a former ruling party used to having Govs almost 100% run its machines, this is a disaster for PDP. They’re floundering; with have no clue what to do about it.

16 years of being a ruling party (and not a very good one at that, when you consider Infrastructure,Social Investment & poverty alleviation, corruption, & even job creation) have left PDP hopelessly ill-prepared to run a campaign that is not dependent on incumbent political might

One other angle: PDP Govs have come to know and appreciate the joys of being opposition Govs working with a benevolent President. If you wanna know what a non-benevolent Presidency looks like, ask Peter Obi what OBJ did to him (2006) or Amaechi what GEJ did to him (2013-2015).

PMB does not Interfere in State Governments, does not spend his time scheming impeaching plots for Govs he’s unhappy with (like OBJ); his wife does not spend her time intimidating Govs like PGEJ. Every State gets its benefits, regardless of partisan affiliation or Gov’s attitude.

Listen to how opposition Govs speak about PMB. The genuine love & respect. The fact that Abuja is not constantly trying to intimidate and harass them - which was one of the defining elements of the PDP years. OBJ defied Supreme Court to hold on to illegally-seized Lagos LG money.

Having tasted and enjoyed a benevolent Presidency, tell me why PDP Governors should show any enthusiasm in upsetting the status quo. A PDP Presidency will bring plenty headache for them - new power centers to challenge them from Abuja - which is the PDP way, patented since 1999.