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A Saturday morning review incorporating the Brexit Probability Tracker - and the big headline is the PM's deal starting to slide as the favourite. But the reason for that isn't a more likely no-deal. It is a more likely extension 1/
The PM's strategy, insofar as the word could be used, is to run the clock down so that it is her deal v no deal, and her deal wins, aided by some notional Commission concession which doesn't actually change anything. The Millwall deal, nobody likes it, she doesn't care 2/
But she's not winning support on either side of her party, or from the Labour Party, anything like enough to overturn 230 majority. Few outside Cabinet loyalists seriously expect the Commission to backtrack on the backstop. So if it becomes no deal v extension? 3/
The week after next is crucial, if enough MPs are brave enough to delay Brexit, and there may well be, the game changes. The flaws in the PM's deal become more obvious, other options return to discussion, including the referendum 4/
Given the inadequacies of the referendum campaign it would probably be counter-productive of them to support an Article 50 extension. But if one was to happen it would be the most positive thing to have happened to them in months 5/
So that sets the scene. On balance MPs will probably not be brave enough to vote for extension the week after next, it will be the PMs deal v no-deal, and the PMs deal may just marginally be the favourite (but see again MP bravery) 6/ 
Sadly the crunch point is coming too late for some businesses and jobs. We can see from the data when the PM's deal was considered 60% likely - in the week it was agreed. The opportunities have been squandered, and we're nearly back to square one. 7/ end
