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Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Sorry, but no. You're not competing against "the masses". You are competing against the smartest humans in the world and the non-human intelligences they have created. There is zero market edge from being another smart guy. Zero. This is the Big Lie of Jim Cramer and his ilk.
Most of the responses to this thread are great examples of the three most common behavioral errors in markets: mistaking luck for skill, overestimating your own abilities, and underestimating informational efficiency in markets.
Is there “alpha” to be gained from understanding these three most common behavioral biases? Sure, it’s called the CNBC business model. It’s called the Ameritrade 24/5 ad campaign. It’s called E*trade.
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Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
Alpha = private information. Period. Full stop.
I understand that we'd like to think that smarts + process + time = alpha. It's one of the little lies that we tell ourselves to get through the day. Here's the 10-year chart of Berkshire vs. S&P total return. Without private information (and often with it) THERE IS NO ALPHA.
When did fundamental active management begin to die? In August 2000, when Reg FD made it illegal to get private information from public companies. If Reg FD dated back to 1980, you would have never heard of Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett.
Read 8 tweets
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Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
My (very) unpopular opinion: capital gains taxation should be progressive, starting at 0% and going up to 99%. It’s the best way to start chipping away at the Oligarchy while encouraging everyone to be an investor.
I'm just here for the ratio.
Thread ... I am proposing a progressive capital gains tax PRECISELY because I want to punish wealth building at extreme scale. I want to prevent the next Jeff Bezos or Marc Benioff from happening. That is EXACTLY my goal. Go on ... ratio away.
Read 6 tweets
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Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
(1) A brief twitterflurry on the *business* of market commentary, something near and dear to the @EpsilonTheory heart. wsj.com/articles/bloom…
(2) When Big Media makes a business out of multi-author commentary (Gadfly had 19 columnists + 10 editors, god only knows how many people are at Heard on the Street), it's ALWAYS pablum. Why? For the same reason that a portfolio with 30 equity ETFs is ALWAYS pablum.
(3) It wasn't always this way. Pre-internet, the "Citizen Kane model" of buying a lot of expensive columnists and editors could work, at least from a biz perspective.
Read 8 tweets

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