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Let us try to disentangle the various Brexit news threads of the last 12 hours or so - starting with this one from Politico - EU want the PM to prove she has Parliament's backing for anything they do. This is not new... 1/ politico.eu/article/eu-bre…
All serious international negotiators - the EU, US the most obvious - know their credibility rests on being able to get a deal through their own institutions. The PM failing to do this, then denouncing her own deal, has left no trust in her ability 2/
To note, this isn't any change the PM and Parliament can vote for and EU will deliver - this is one specific thing that doesn't cross EU red lines and has a majority in Parliament. Partly the EU trying to teach the UK about negotiations, but partly... 3/
Most observers of the UK Parliament and Brexit do not believe the PM's current approach can get a majority except in desperation. They don't think the DUP will support, some ERG will never support, and she therefore needs at least 30 from Labour. 4/
There is almost certainly a majority in Parliament for a soft Brexit, but the PM and Corbyn are unlikely to be able to find a way to it. That together with the ERG / EU incompatibility is why the PM's tactics are simply to run the clock down and threaten her deal or no deal 5/
Enter then this week's Parliamentary votes, on amendments to ask the EU to delay Brexit day. Increasing numbers of MPs, including in Government, are hearing the anger of business about uncertainty and fear of no-deal. 6/
Delay is complicated. How long, and how does this affect negotiations? It isn't really clear, because the same incompatibilities continue to affect any UK vote, and you also have to factor in European elections in May. 7/
The UK political process is basically stuck on Brexit. Voting for one or both of the delaying amendments recognises this, in the hope that somehow it forces the PM to change from my deal or else, towards finding a position with a majority 8/
All Brexit roads then lead back to the PM. But as we see from this story, she's showing no signs of listening. For her, no deal is more of a threat for MPs than any great use in negotiations. We will see this week if MPs can force a change 9/ end theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
