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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Let us try to disentangle the various Brexit news threads of the last 12 hours or so - starting with this one from Politico - EU want the PM to prove she has Parliament's backing for anything they do. This is not new... 1/ politico.eu/article/eu-bre…
All serious international negotiators - the EU, US the most obvious - know their credibility rests on being able to get a deal through their own institutions. The PM failing to do this, then denouncing her own deal, has left no trust in her ability 2/
To note, this isn't any change the PM and Parliament can vote for and EU will deliver - this is one specific thing that doesn't cross EU red lines and has a majority in Parliament. Partly the EU trying to teach the UK about negotiations, but partly... 3/
Most observers of the UK Parliament and Brexit do not believe the PM's current approach can get a majority except in desperation. They don't think the DUP will support, some ERG will never support, and she therefore needs at least 30 from Labour. 4/
There is almost certainly a majority in Parliament for a soft Brexit, but the PM and Corbyn are unlikely to be able to find a way to it. That together with the ERG / EU incompatibility is why the PM's tactics are simply to run the clock down and threaten her deal or no deal 5/
Enter then this week's Parliamentary votes, on amendments to ask the EU to delay Brexit day. Increasing numbers of MPs, including in Government, are hearing the anger of business about uncertainty and fear of no-deal. 6/
Delay is complicated. How long, and how does this affect negotiations? It isn't really clear, because the same incompatibilities continue to affect any UK vote, and you also have to factor in European elections in May. 7/
The UK political process is basically stuck on Brexit. Voting for one or both of the delaying amendments recognises this, in the hope that somehow it forces the PM to change from my deal or else, towards finding a position with a majority 8/
All Brexit roads then lead back to the PM. But as we see from this story, she's showing no signs of listening. For her, no deal is more of a threat for MPs than any great use in negotiations. We will see this week if MPs can force a change 9/ end theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Hot off the press, the Government has put out a paper setting out proposals for scrutiny of new trade agreements. Progress, though still feels a little reluctant. Positive step - a Parliamentary committee will scrutinise. Good. But...
Parliament still doesn't get any real vote. So we're going to be in the same situation as per Brexit, where we don't know if there is a Parliamentary majority. There should be an amendable motion up front to ensure there is genuine clarity and consensus
Reports of each round are welcome, as are more confidential briefs for the Parliamentary committee. But more thought needs to be given to whether text can be released during the process - the secrecy question otherwise looms
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Evolution of the sceptical view on Labour's Brexit referendum policy:

- They didn't really mean it
- They did mean it but will never call a vote on it
- They're calling a vote but only because they know they'll lose

Maybe - but will this vote be closer than that on the deal?
This is Parliament in their own Brexit endgame, assuming marginal but not fundamental changes to the agreement, through a side-letter. If either referendum or deal passes (unlikely) or comes within 30 votes (possible) we can finally see where we're going.
See also PM promises on workers rights, but like the Brexit codicil, the problem is this isn't binding, and there's a lot of lawyers on all sides of the house who will be quick and often correct to declare something not legally binding theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The Government's important report "[Insert title of report]" has been released.
It is in fact another summary of no-deal impacts, not sure it tells us a great deal that is new, but it lays out fairly starkly many of the trade implications e.g. on UK nationals travelling to the EU for paid work assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Via the cunning subterfuge of wandering around Whitehall at 9 this morning I actually bumped into a some former civil service colleagues, and the main message from them was we'll do what we can to avoid the worst but problems are inevitable
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU watching Westminster closely this week but not rushing to any
conclusions. Here is some of the key thinking in European capitals on
the main #Brexit issues of the day: /1
On Labour/second referendum: Corbyn seen in Europe as convinced
eurosceptic so EU is sceptical of his backing a second referendum. EU
has watched #Brexit turmoil long enough to see huge complications in
holding the vote and realise many leave voters have changed their
mind. /2
Of course EU would still rather UK stayed but Europe's leaders don't
see this as realistically on the cards right now. Most realistic,
considering turmoil in Westminster, says EU council President Tusk:
would be to extend article 50 leaving process. /3
Read 11 tweets
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Antonello Guerrera
@antoguerrera
Why Jeremy Corbyn has changed his mind on a 2nd #Brexit referendum and why this might paradoxically help May to get her deal through the Parliament. A thread from my article in @repubblica

(I usually do this Brexit stuff in Italian, I’ll try in English now, hope to be decent 😊)
First of all, the most obvious thing: Corbyn did this move not only because of a new Brexit strategy but above all because of a party strategy: the hemorrhage of moderate or outraged MPs had to be stopped somehow. The Independent group surely was concerning him. We’ll see.
Sure this move won’t stop the MPs shocked by the accusations of antisemitism, but it might have a good impact on the europhile ones. The new mantra is clear: until the choice is between May’s deal and No Deal, the new Labour weapon is a new, 2nd referendum.
#Brexit
Read 19 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
While there is widespread disagreement about whether the EU will blink or not over #Brexit (spoiler alert: the bloc is more flexible than it wants to indicate right now) it’s arguably more useful to think what kind of eventual ‘concessions’ we might be talking about from the EU 1
It’s true the EU has a history of blinking in the last moment BUT only in its own interest. In the Greek debt crisis the bloc chose to keep Greece in the eurozone in order (leaders thought) to better protect the whole currency 2
When I say EU will be more flexible than seems right now, I don’t mean ditching the backstop. EU leaders want to protect the single market. They earn more from it than from trade with UK alone. Protecting border on island of Ireland = protecting SM as well as NI peace process 3
Read 10 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
Last night @jeremycorbyn laid down his concrete proposals for Labour to vote with May on the #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in the Commons.

labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-c…

Let us look at them from an EU27 perspective and what they mean for the negotiations:
/1
@jeremycorbyn On the positive side, Corbyn accepts that the WA will not be reopened - including the backstop - and focuses on the Political declaration to assure the Backstop will not be needed.

As @AndrewDuffEU argued, this is a much more viable path for agreement with the EU27.
@jeremycorbyn @AndrewDuffEU His proposals are, however, little less than a Labour form of cherry picking:

On Customs Union, he wants a seat with full say at the table for the UK. A form of consultations, possibly, but certainly no vote for a third country.

See my thread here: twitter.com/NvOndarza/stat…

/3
Read 9 tweets
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #EPonBrexit #livestream #Remain #EEA #PeoplesVote #FBPE #brexit #EUCO #GE2017 #consumerprotection #StopBrexit #BelgiumJokes #A50 #BrexitIsPersonal #DExEU #FutureofEurope #PublicHealth #alliance4Europe #FoodSafety #CambridgeAnalytica #Article50 #BrexitDK #EØS #IrishBorder
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