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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Evolution of the sceptical view on Labour's Brexit referendum policy:

- They didn't really mean it
- They did mean it but will never call a vote on it
- They're calling a vote but only because they know they'll lose

Maybe - but will this vote be closer than that on the deal?
This is Parliament in their own Brexit endgame, assuming marginal but not fundamental changes to the agreement, through a side-letter. If either referendum or deal passes (unlikely) or comes within 30 votes (possible) we can finally see where we're going.
See also PM promises on workers rights, but like the Brexit codicil, the problem is this isn't binding, and there's a lot of lawyers on all sides of the house who will be quick and often correct to declare something not legally binding theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Alternate headline: Brexiteers seek friendly journalist to write up so called peace offer which is nothing of the kind, and hope to gain support for no deal by sounding apparently reasonable while knowing EU can't agree to these demands.
All of which is to say there's nothing reported that marks any change of position whatsoever. Inside we find that Selmayr has taken over from Merkel as the EU leader supposedly going to give us a deal.

And so nothing changed.
Turns out a number of others have the same thoughts about this story...
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The US rejects the WTO 'straitjacket' in terms of trade obligations news.trust.org//item/20190302…
The US also says the UK should build upon 'WTO rights and obligations' to get rid of barriers to their agricultural trade e.g. our old favourite agricultural products...

Obviously this US contradiction is no basis for a trade agreement, as most countries recognise
It is strange how those who think the EU is a 'protectionist racket' do not think the same about the US. In truth, of course, they have much in common in trade policy terms
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Brexit Probability tracker time, but first some thoughts about where we are. All indications are to expect no substantive changes from Brussels talks, so the vote in 2 weeks time is going to be on the deal already rejected by 230. 1/
There's lots of talk about opposition to the deal softening, and some evidence of it happening. But when I see the informed sources around Parliament with their numbers, even on the best case the PM falls some way short of passing the deal 2/
This will be followed by votes on no-deal and seeking extension. For me, the mainstream Conservative Brexit Delivery Group pressing against no-deal is then significant. This reduces the chances of no-deal, certainly in March 3/
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU watching Westminster closely this week but not rushing to any
conclusions. Here is some of the key thinking in European capitals on
the main #Brexit issues of the day: /1
On Labour/second referendum: Corbyn seen in Europe as convinced
eurosceptic so EU is sceptical of his backing a second referendum. EU
has watched #Brexit turmoil long enough to see huge complications in
holding the vote and realise many leave voters have changed their
mind. /2
Of course EU would still rather UK stayed but Europe's leaders don't
see this as realistically on the cards right now. Most realistic,
considering turmoil in Westminster, says EU council President Tusk:
would be to extend article 50 leaving process. /3
Read 11 tweets
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Antonello Guerrera
@antoguerrera
Why Jeremy Corbyn has changed his mind on a 2nd #Brexit referendum and why this might paradoxically help May to get her deal through the Parliament. A thread from my article in @repubblica

(I usually do this Brexit stuff in Italian, I’ll try in English now, hope to be decent 😊)
First of all, the most obvious thing: Corbyn did this move not only because of a new Brexit strategy but above all because of a party strategy: the hemorrhage of moderate or outraged MPs had to be stopped somehow. The Independent group surely was concerning him. We’ll see.
Sure this move won’t stop the MPs shocked by the accusations of antisemitism, but it might have a good impact on the europhile ones. The new mantra is clear: until the choice is between May’s deal and No Deal, the new Labour weapon is a new, 2nd referendum.
#Brexit
Read 19 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Let's talk about a new, straight forward kind of politics
Let's look back at what Corbyn has done, and more importantly not done, over the past few weeks on #Brexit & a #PeoplesVote
Sneak peak: it definitely wasn't "for the many"
2) Firstly, it was an open secret that Corbyn & all other party leaders knew that a Vote of No Confidence was *never, ever* going to succeed.

Every Tory MP would vote for May (as they did) and the DUP was never going to vote for "United Ireland" Corbyn
Whole thing was a farce
3) so all the talk, by multiple Labour Front benchers on "timing" & "not playing games" when it came to the VoNC was either a deliberate lie or gullibility.

The timing made no difference because the chances of May losing it were vanishingly small
Read 15 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Why Labour #Brexit Conference policy is flawed

Unfortunately Ben is wrong here, Corbyn is following the agreed policy here because that policy let's him do exactly what he wants on Brexit, not what the members want

The policy is a well crafted stitch up
2) there's 2 consistent themes from Corbyn supporters
a) this is the policy Labour conference overwhelmingly supported
b) Corbyn's following that policy to the letter
Both of these are true, but neither stand up to critical examination if we're being honest
3) in terms of the first "this is the policy conference supported" well, as a remainer its essentially the same as the non meaningful vote May tried to create
May's choice was her deal or no. Deal which, if true, is no deal at all
It was the same with Labour conference policy
Read 25 tweets
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SimonCowley #Peoplesvote
@SimonCowley2nd
Why have I changed my mind since the 2016 EU Referendum and why it is wrong to continue to support Brexit?
Nothing has convinced me otherwise.
Let the people have the final say
#PeoplesVote #RemainerNow #tory #labour #libdems #brexit
The country is divided and some of the reasons many of us who voted Leave have been laid bare: immigration, lack of respect, fear for your job and squeeze on public services.
#PeoplesVote #RemainerNow #tory #labour #libdems #brexit
Trust me, sovereignty was way, way down the list!
We lashed out upsetting the apple cart and gave the government a bloody nose and like many got joy at watching David Cameron lose his job.
Read 25 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #PeoplesVote #Labour #privacy #bbcqt #marr #CambridgeAnalytica #xenophobia #PCPEU #FBPE #EU #Sue #Fraud #Brexiteers #Article50 #brexit #timefortruth #timefortruths #HostileEnvironment #underreported #labour #alliance4Europe #FutureofEurope #HarryLeslieSmith #LabourConference2018
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