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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
It seems the PM will be saying to Parliament tomorrow that a revised Brexit deal is within reach, and that if everyone could just hold off for another couple of weeks they will be voting on the actual deal. There's just a couple of problems with that...
The said Brexit solution needs to be both simultaneously a time limited and / or unilateral escape from the backstop (for her own party) and not in any way time limited or unilaterally revocable (for Ireland / the EU). This seems, er, unlikely
The PM also rejects an extension to the Brexit date while simultaneously refusing to progress any primary Brexit legislation such as the Trade Bill and doubtless soon the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill so time is running out.
Perhaps tomorrow the PM will say how these contradictions are to be resolved, but if she cannot then it is reasonable to conclude that this is yet another delay to ensure that the only choice is the existing deal v no deal. Although...
Worth remembering the PM does not just have to get a majority for her deal once. She has to get it repeatedly so the relevant measures can pass Parliament. MPs will be invited to support this strategy this week... /end
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The US have published negotiating objectives for a future UK trade deal, though they aren't UK specific, being substantially the same as a similar document for the EU. No country should negotiate on the basis of them as they aren't based on mutual benefit ustr.gov/sites/default/…
All the expected stuff is in there - remove barriers to US food, drug pricing in NHS, withdraw from European standards community, no trade deal with China, discourage commercial boycotts of Israel. Plus lots of irrelevant boilerplate on e.g. labour standards
Plus, there is no suggestion of particular benefits for the UK. Thus for example no special regulatory dialogue in financial services, at least there is no mention of trade deficit,s as we both think we run a surplus with the other
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Hot off the press, the Government has put out a paper setting out proposals for scrutiny of new trade agreements. Progress, though still feels a little reluctant. Positive step - a Parliamentary committee will scrutinise. Good. But...
Parliament still doesn't get any real vote. So we're going to be in the same situation as per Brexit, where we don't know if there is a Parliamentary majority. There should be an amendable motion up front to ensure there is genuine clarity and consensus
Reports of each round are welcome, as are more confidential briefs for the Parliamentary committee. But more thought needs to be given to whether text can be released during the process - the secrecy question otherwise looms
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Evolution of the sceptical view on Labour's Brexit referendum policy:

- They didn't really mean it
- They did mean it but will never call a vote on it
- They're calling a vote but only because they know they'll lose

Maybe - but will this vote be closer than that on the deal?
This is Parliament in their own Brexit endgame, assuming marginal but not fundamental changes to the agreement, through a side-letter. If either referendum or deal passes (unlikely) or comes within 30 votes (possible) we can finally see where we're going.
See also PM promises on workers rights, but like the Brexit codicil, the problem is this isn't binding, and there's a lot of lawyers on all sides of the house who will be quick and often correct to declare something not legally binding theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
Read 3 tweets

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