Thread by @DoubleEph

My good man @Ambrosia_Ijebu (one of the sharpest people I know), says he's logging out of Politics and going to Mekwe Twitter. I suspect many people are feeling this way. Let me try to persuade you why you should not log out of Nigerian politics (yet).

Issa thread my friends

@Ambrosia_Ijebu Let's start with the Kardashians (Kano, Katsina, Kaduna). In 2015, Buhari got 4.4m votes from those states. In 2019, that number went down to 3.7m. He lost 16% of his votes in his firewall states. His votes are behaving like Nigeria's GDP under his care

@Ambrosia_Ijebu How do we explain this? In 2015, Sai Baba was just an idea. In 2019, it is a lived reality. Having 'enjoyed' Sai Baba in a practical manner, many have asked the driver to stop the bus and allow them get down.

@Ambrosia_Ijebu It's even worse when you put it in context - how many people do you think have come of voting age in the Kardashian states in the last 4yrs? At least 1m no? So not only is Sai Baba losing his initial passengers, many are opting not to enter the bus at all

@Ambrosia_Ijebu But Beau Harry's own is even good. When you come down to the SW you see that so many of the so called 'leaders' in the region are swimming naked. According to the 2006 census, there were 1.3m in Alimosho alone - the most populous local government in Nigeria.

@Ambrosia_Ijebu Now ask yourself this - when was the last time you heard election numbers from Alimosho that made you stand up and shout 'elebetielebe!' Before the elections, there is always the foreplay of Alimosho bringing in the massive. But when results come? Fake news.

@Ambrosia_Ijebu This year, in the presidential election, Beau Harry got 65k votes in Alimosho and Atiku got 44k. They fought over 8% of the population of Alimosho 13yrs ago if we even assume there has been no population growth there at all. Do you know why Alimosho no longer delivers? Aregbesola

@Ambrosia_Ijebu Aregbe is one of the most useless politicians in the SW. There was a time he could get out the vote in Alimosho but now, he is measured not just by what he says but also by what he does. And people now KNOW how useless he is. Like Sai Baba, he is losing votes and not replenishing

@Ambrosia_Ijebu I've been saying it for a while now that @AsiwajuTinubu is finished. I have now changed my mind. He is not finished. He is completely finished. Like all the other useless SW politicians, he is losing votes AND not adding anything new from the growing wider pool

@Ambrosia_Ijebu @AsiwajuTinubu Tinuke got a lucky dip in 2007 with Fashola which prolonged his life. Watch that video of him explaining bullion vans in his house on eve of elections - do you think any young new voter watched it and said 'this is the man I've been waiting for, I'm definitely going to vote APC'

@Ambrosia_Ijebu @AsiwajuTinubu Look at Oshodi - even with MC Oluomo there, the difference between APC and PDP in the presidential election was 1,000 votes. But even worse all they shared between them was less than 60k votes. If you stand on the bridge in Oshodi, you'll count 60k people in 3hrs

@Ambrosia_Ijebu @AsiwajuTinubu This is the key thing to note - not only are these guys losing support, they are REPELLING new people. This means there are numbers out there that can be tapped into to knock them out. There are 1million fresh, virgin, pristine, untouched votes in Lagos waiting for someone

@Ambrosia_Ijebu @AsiwajuTinubu Tinubu is like a football manager whose team got a lucky penalty in the 3rd minute and immediately told his team to put 11 men behind the ball and defend that lucky goal. After a while, even his own fans will start booing him and no new fans will be attracted

@Ambrosia_Ijebu @AsiwajuTinubu So what's the future? There are some clues. The way the VP campaigned for this election offers a glimpse into the future. Can you imagine if Osinbajo was using all that energy to sell an economy growing at 7%? APC would have blown PDP out of the water in a landslide

@Ambrosia_Ijebu @AsiwajuTinubu But 1% growth is 1% growth - no amount of sweet Pastor Lawyer mouth can change that reality. He had nothing better to sell than Trader Moni, he lost his own VGC estate (despite campaigning HEAVILY) as you cant sell Trader Moni there.

@Ambrosia_Ijebu @AsiwajuTinubu Do you even think the VP won the tech ecosystem vote? I doubt it. Again, for all his sweet talk and drawing them close, he really had nothing to offer. In reality, he was part of a government that imposed BullShittu on them. What does this all mean? The old system is dying out

@Ambrosia_Ijebu @AsiwajuTinubu Family chats and energetic campaigning are the way of the future but you still need something useful to sell. All these clown show politicians have run out of ideas completely and they're all playing defence now. As a future force, they're all finished

@Ambrosia_Ijebu @AsiwajuTinubu A lot of people are feeling depressed at the terrifying thought of entering the Next Level with Sai Baba. I also know it is easy for me to say as I don't live in Nigeria. But if you can afford to take a bit of a long view, "the Egyptians you see today, you will never see again"

@Ambrosia_Ijebu @AsiwajuTinubu What we are seeing is the unravelling of useless politicians who have failed to develop themselves or update their ideas or political skills. They cannot talk to people, they cannot persuade a dog to play with a bone.

Don't log out yet. Game still dey