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This is a good question. Let me answer with another short thread. Sorry to clog your timelines but you have to take it like that
Here in the U.K., in the last election we had in 2017, turnout was ~70%. In essence, however you want to win an election in Nigeria, you have to *persuade* people to change their mind. If you’re Labour and you want power, you need to persuade people who voted Tory to switch
That’s a simplification but you get the idea. Now think about Lagos, I think turnout was ~20%. But the way to look at it is something I recently learnt from reading my brother @EfosaOjomo’s book The Prosperity Paradox. APC and PDP are not really the competition
On Saturday, around 4.5million Lagosians voted for a party known as the Logged Out Party (LOP). This is the big kahuna of Nigerian politics right now. The way to win is to steal votes from the LOP by persuading people to change their minds
What’s the strategy? There are several strategies and many will be correct (I don’t claim to have the answers). But the thing we should first agree on is that the LOP is the competition and that is where votes need to be stolen from.
Once you see the LOP as the competition, next step is to figure out what is in this party’s manifesto that is helping it sweep so many votes. In fact if not for vote buying, LOP might even get a lot more votes. But you can’t buy 4.5m votes
What is in the LOP’s manifesto making it so sweet? Cynicism is definitely one. Disgust is another. The LOP is also very non-judgemental so people are comfortable there. It says to voters “they’re all thieves and Nigeria cannot change, stay at home and watch Africa Magic”. Killer
So how do you campaign against the LOP? Remember if you steal just 20% of their votes in Lagos, you will win, easy. This is why I say the future belongs to people who can talk to Nigerians. Who can persuade. Who have good political skills. And who have good ideas to sell.
