Thread by @uk_domain_names

With less than 30 days left until Brexit Day, it’s time to have a proper grown-up, open, honest conversation about Brexit. At the moment, Brexit Day is 29 March 2019. On that day, we will leave the EU at 11pm UK time. Our departure will be abrupt.

At 10:59pm, we’ll still be in the EU. One minute later, we’ll be out.

The timing of Brexit Day is the result of having triggered Article 50 when we did. Article 50 is a legal process that gives a country exactly two years to work out how to leave the EU.

Brexit is happening on Theresa May's schedule. Back in March 2017, she chose to trigger Article 50 & set the clock ticking.

What happens on Brexit Day? Well, the UK will no longer be subject to any of the EU's hundreds of international treaties, arrangements & trade agreements.

They will go in one fell swoop, as if we'd fed them all into a shredder.

EU treaties allow people to drive anywhere in the EU on a driver's license issued by any EU member state. To import and export goods within the EU without delays, complicated paperwork, or tariffs.

To fly aircraft, and operate coaches, ferries and trains. To travel without the need for a visa, live, work, or retire in any EU country. To take pets on holiday easily. To practice as lawyers, architects, doctors or other professionals anywhere in the EU.

To sell financial services into any EU country ("financial passporting"). To do thousands of other things we currently take for granted. Other EU treaties underpin workers' rights, give us clean beaches, protect our environment, and watch out for our interests in countless ways.

All that ends on Brexit Day. Why? Simple: we will no longer be a signatory to the EU's treaties. Not because the EU is being vindictive. Not because they're trying to punish us for leaving. No, it's the legal outcome of how Article 50 works. Sentiment doesn't come into it.

You've no doubt experienced leaving a contract before, even if you didn't think about it in those terms. Maybe when you changed mobile phone provider or electricity supplier. Or when you quit a gym membership.

Whatever it was, once the contract ended, you were no longer entitled to the stuff it used to provide you. That's so normal, it feels weird even mentioning it. But Brexit's exactly the same, just on a massive scale. That's why Brexit has the potential to be a disaster.

Every negative consequence of Brexit is the result of the loss of one treaty or another. And because we will lose so many at once, the overall consequences could be catastrophic.

Of course, we can reach new agreements with the EU (and with other countries) to replace the lost treaties. But over 700 need replacing. Each one takes time to negotiate. Every negotiation gives the other side another opportunity to drive a hard bargain.

So far, we've barely made a dent in the pile. We’re nowhere near ready.

It's important to acknowledge the outcome of the referendum. But the 2016 vote doesn't affect the likelihood of Brexit itself being a success.

You can't vote to win the lottery, or for your team to win at football. Cause and effect don't work like that. By the same token, the referendum result doesn't affect the Brexit process. It only means we have to try and implement Brexit.

So saying "you lost, get over it" is literally to deny reality. Brexit isn't something we can "get over", no matter if we voted Leave or Remain. When we leave the EU, we will cease to be bound by any of its treaties. That's not up for discussion. It's a fact.

Facts are immutable. They don't change based on political leanings. They aren't affected by patriotism, or belief, or willpower, or passion, or desire, or sheer bloody-mindedness. Facts just are.

All the treaties will go away no matter how good our negotiators are. We might be able to strike slightly better or worse new arrangements, but we will still need to replace all our existing ones. That's just how Article 50 works.

So it would be wrong to claim that Brexit is failing because of who's conducting the talks. No, Brexit is broken at a far more basic level. It is fundamentally flawed.

Think of our EU membership as a jigsaw puzzle, one put together over more than 40 years. Each piece represents something important. We need them all for life to continue as normal. But on Brexit Day the entire jigsaw will vanish. Every single piece will disappear.

Instead, we will be left with the pathetic assortment of replacement pieces we cobbled together. The loss of all those treaties will bring chaos and confusion, whether we like it or not. That’s the truth at the heart of Brexit. The unavoidable truth. The hard truth.

There is only one course of action that will guarantee we can avoid our fate. And that is to revoke Article 50 and stay. That may seem like a bitter pill to swallow. But life’s not fair. Reality is harsh. Do we face it like adults, or hide under the blankets like children?

ENDS.

If you prefer, this thread is also available as a PDF from the link below... Please retweet it and share it if you found it useful. Thanks.
drive.google.com/file/d/1EMQ7D2…

Now that you've made it to the end, perhaps you'd like to go on to find out the truth about trading on WTO terms ...

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1073221524545363973?s=21

And if you're left thinking "that's all well and good, but we're talking about hypotheticals, aren't we?" Unfortunately not. Brexit is already wreaking major damage to the UK, like ferocious outer bands of wind from an approaching hurricane.

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1091012892676292609?s=21