Thread by @hayward_katy

The UK has published its approach to cross-border movement of goods in N.Ireland under a No Deal scenario, as the PM promised after the WA defeat on Tuesday.

Here's a short thread on what it means.

TL;DR: out of sight, out of mind [pun intended]
1/10
gov.uk/guidance/eu-ex…

First, ‘unilateral’ border measures are a bit of a misnomer (2 sides to a border!)
Uncertainty persists without detail from IRL side.

If goods coming into NI are subject to no tariffs but those going out are, NI exporters & producers have had legs cut out from under them.
2/10

Second, it is emphasised that this is a ‘temporary measure’.
The all-too-familiar question then is, how do you get out of it?
The Protocol on NI/IRL had review & arbitration mechanisms + the right to suspend provisions etc.
This has none of that.
Talk about ‘indefinite’…
3/10

Also on that: commitment is to ‘enter discussions urgently’ with the EU & Irish govt to avoid a hard Irish border long-term.
Will these measures be all-UK or NI-specific? They will have to cover customs & regulatory alignment… which takes us right back to a familiar place.
4/10

Another issue is whether these arrangements wd be legal.
MFN principle wd make it very odd (to say the least) to apply different rules at different parts of your border.
How do we determine the origin of goods crossing @BorderIrish if they don't need to be declared?
5/10

[PAUSE: have to dash to @BBCnireland to join @BBCTalkback - more anon!]

The repeated promise of ‘no new checks or controls at the land border’ *does* mean *limited* new checks & controls at sea & air entry points 🚢🛬, plus checks on trader premises.

Note: reference to products from 'outside the EU' presumably inc. those from post-Brexit GB 🌍
6/10

It mentions ‘the challenge posed by organised criminals seeking to exploit any new system’ but it offers no means to combat this.🕵️‍♀️
Worse: currently very unclear on what the compliance regime is.
Even worse: it undermines the incentive for businesses to be legally compliant.
7/10

In particular, VAT is a potential issue. To avoid having to pay VAT on entry to NI (as would be the logical system), the systems of VAT registration, tracking & accounting will need to be rigorous, tight & enforced.
Outside VIES = a bit of a chasm?
🕳️
8/10
ec.europa.eu/taxation_custo…

It promises further info for businesses to be published ‘in the event that Parl votes for a no deal’ (doubtful there's thick glossy brochures ready to be posted).

Note: all this will need a package of legislation to be implemented.
Will it be scrutinised? Will it be passed?
9/10

In sum:
If a #NoDeal #Brexit would open a deep sore in N.Ireland’s economy, this is not even a sticking plaster.

It is more like a folk remedy that would not only harm healthy tissue but would actively encourage germs to flourish.
10/10