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Richard Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Candidate polling at 6% post-announcement, who are failed higher senate candidate reps, are not "top tier."

I'm not saying Francis the Fake Hispanic can't grow. But let's not overhype it.

Find me the last congressman who won a nomination. Then find the reasons why.
Every POTUS candidate must have a few fundamentals:

1. Justification - inc. a timely MSG, each must justify their campaign to the electorate, or why "X is the one for this moment."

2. Presidential Bar - inc. experience. People have to trust they can do the job of president.
There are more. But these two are consistent biggies.

F1: Obama & Trump had the strongest justifications of our generation. Obama offered "Hope and Change" after endless war & Great Recession. Objectively, he didn't deliver, and teed up Trump's vow to Make America Great Again.
Obama and Trump both had opponents who were strong on F2, but weak on F1. Meaning, RE: electoral sentiment. F1 was more important to voters than F2. Similarly, both were themselves weak on F2, but met that bar. Obama was a calm & cool senator, Trump was a successful executive.
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Richard Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
Btw, @CNN has some nerve criticizing @Rasmussen_Poll, even if there's valid criticism, which I think we all should welcome.

How's Governor Gillum+7 doing? Give me a break.
Those little pollster hit pieces should tell readers & viewers where the industry really is at right now, at least in public arenas. We should want an open & productive dialogue, esp. those in public polling. But interests are narratives & contracts, not trust or accuracy.
FTR, in the private arena, where you're paid to get it right, it's not like the public arena. & not all politics.

We talk, communicate with data source providers and work together to get it right. Polling, or market research in general, is butt ugly in politics, alone.
Read 3 tweets
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Richard Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
Very predictable. Beto was not ready for primetime. What he was, was gassed up by white liberal media elites.

Scrutiny while running for Senate with tons of out-of-state $ in a state mediates want to flip, s nowhere near the presidential level.

He must improve, very quickly.
FTR, it's worth pointing out that those white liberal media elites who gassed up @BetoORourke to run used him. They didn't think he could win, either. They want excitement in Texas, and for @KamalaHarris, who they protected from a denouncement from her own father, to pick him.
We have not spoken with one Democrat who thought Beto O'Rourke could win the nomination. What we did hear was that he'd make a great VP pick for Kamala Harris, who they want to run against Donald Trump.

They need the racist run. It cannot be about his record.
Read 3 tweets
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Richard Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
Beto doesn't necessary put Texas in play. Look closer at who made it close vs. Ted Cruz. Those are swingy whites. it was close B/C it was a good election for Democrats in the House, BC he spent millions on platitudes w.o vetting, and it was a Senate race. And guess what? He lost.
Beto only had a good launch day in the minds of white liberal journalists. Think Progress & others said he didn't bring much to the field. Pelosi struggled to cite a single accomplishment before mentioning his support for the environment (not a bill), Green groups disagreed.
Beto only had a good launch day in the minds of white liberal journalists (thread): Slate said Beto “brings the least to the Democratic primary.” Despite comparing those who make climate change proposals to “those who were on the beaches in Normandy," Slate 👎 his climate creds.
Read 7 tweets

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Disagree. Founders are heavily incentivized to minimize this at the time of funding since dilution hurts most pre not post valuation. Founders will absolutely expand this as needed to hire top-tier talent. I don’t think this is a strong correlation with being short-sighted.
Also, if it’s so important maybe VCs should be a true partner and take the post dilution hit with the founders.
They won’t because they can’t guarantee their % stake. What calculation do people think founders are doing? (side effect: also good for employees!) It's silly because the option pool will be expanded as soon as it runs out through board consent post fundraising.
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