Thread by @KenThomasRoss

The Uphill Battle to Take the #Senate
We have a chance for Democrats to gain the #SenateMajority after the Nov elections. The balance is currently 51/49 (including 2 Indep’s.). We need turnover at least 2 GOP seats, w/o any losses. With losses, we will need to win more.

Senators serve for six years, divided into three ‘classes’. One-third of Senate seats are in play every two years, plus any vacancies for early resignations. This year there are two of the latter.

Unfortunately, in 2018, we have an uphill battle. There are 35 races, but 26 are for Democratic seats, and only 9 are GOP. And most of the latter are considered ‘safe’ for the incumbents. So, taking the Senate in 2018 is a daunting task.

This uneven division is mostly the result of successful 2000, 2006 & 2012 elections, which threw out 12 Republican Senators. All these seats have remained Democratic.

So, the ONLY winning strategy is to defend all the 26 - and try to overturn as many of the nine as possible.

If you want a much more liberal Senate, look to the next 2 elections. In 2020 12 Democrats and 21 Republicans are up for reelection. In 2022, it is 12 Democrats, 22 Republicans. There is a large potential for gains. I count ten Republicans in those two classes in Swing states.

A Senate Majority can block any legislation or nomination. Also, the Majority controls the agenda. It appoints all of the committee chairpersons and decides which bills to send to those committees. (No, impeachment requires two-thirds.)

These are the incumbent Demos most in trouble. They are all in Red or Swing States.

ballotpedia.org/United_States_… Ratings by The Cook Political Report, Apr 9, 2018, Inside Politics, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, July 6, 2018, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, July 24, 2018. Last accessed July 25, 2018.

Average of polling data in the last few months. RCP: Real Clear Politics. realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_… Last accessed July 25, 2018.

@threadreaderapp Unroll