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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This is completely wrong. In fact, over the past 24 hours, Beto O'Rourke has been searched for far more than the other 4 candidates combined. Most people search for "Beto" rather than "Beto O'Rourke", though. Reporters need to use how to use Google Trends properly, tbh.
Google has a tool called search topics that lets you compare candidates in a way lumps different search strings for the same topic (e.g. "Beto", "beto orourke", "beto orourque") under the same umbrella. They show Beto with a huge lead in search traffic. bit.ly/2O5AKa7
Or just the one word search string "Beto" gets at the same thing (almost all search traffic for "Beto" in the US is for O'Rourke).

Google Trends is useful, but language is complicated and many/most searches will not be for a candidate's full first and last name spelled verbatim.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Some slightly longer thoughts on the political upshot of the Mueller report. (Or more precisely, Barr's letter about the Mueller report.) 53eig.ht/2Oq5dzP
Obviously the headline is "this is good for Trump".

There's a range of uncertainty, though, given that we don't have the report yet—the Barr memo leaves a lot of questions unanswered—that runs from roughly "quite good indeed for Trump" to "meh".
For me, the safest conclusion is that a lot of political downside risk was removed from Trump's portfolio, in part because he got through the investigation without firing Mueller or pardoning anyone.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It seems like when people imply that the Mueller Report won't mean "expectations", that really has 4 distinct causes, which are fairly important to distinguish—
1. Excessive hope/excitement from certain Democrats that Mueller would bring Trump down
2. Incautious reporting & false scoops
3. A lot of bad stuff getting normalized just because the investigation has gone on for so long
4. Deliberate goalpost-shifting by the WH and others
These causes aren't in any particular order and I don't know what order I'd put them in. All of them seem indisputably relevant. It strikes me as funny though that a lot of people who complain about 1 & 2 are extremely guilty of 4 (goalpost-shifting). Undoubtedly the reverse too.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
In breaking news situations, often feel torn between "there's no point in speculating since we know very little and there's a good chance we'll be wrong" and "we're all adults here and even relatively limited information can meaningfully affect our priors so let's not be prudes".
Like one thing you probably shouldn't be doing though is, rather than gently speculating, dunking on everyone based on the presumed contents of the report before it comes out. Folks who are doing are sort telling on themselves that they're not being very fact/evidence-driven.
Also, regardless of what the report says, people who have been wrong for 2.5 years about a whole bunch of Russia-related stuff probably shouldn't be taking victory laps touting their sagacity.
Read 3 tweets

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