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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Facebook's News Feed algorithm seems to be surfacing more fake news than ever. bit.ly/2HBC8Aa
A friend—apologies for stealing his theory—once claimed to me the problem with News Feed is that Facebook "engagement" is more or less a proxy for eliciting an emotional response. And you probably want an emotional response when sharing personal updates with family/friends…
But what happens when you reward *news* content—especially hard news or political news—that elicits an emotional response? You wind up with the complete shitshow that News Feed has become.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I dunno, seems like a pretty big constraint on how much Barr's summary of the Mueller Report can deviate from full Mueller Report is that Mueller or others who worked on the investigation can leak through backchannels, or even talk on the record.
Obviously, there's *more* room to engage in spin to the extent that the Mueller Report isn't made public or is significantly redacted, so that's something to watch for. Although, that would also risk a pretty significant backlash.
I suppose I just think the idea that it's essential to get a good headline out there to control the narrative **even if it would cause a big backlash later on as more details are (inevitably) revealed** is overbought. I think the backlash would be bigger than people are assuming.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Some slightly longer thoughts on the political upshot of the Mueller report. (Or more precisely, Barr's letter about the Mueller report.) 53eig.ht/2Oq5dzP
Obviously the headline is "this is good for Trump".

There's a range of uncertainty, though, given that we don't have the report yet—the Barr memo leaves a lot of questions unanswered—that runs from roughly "quite good indeed for Trump" to "meh".
For me, the safest conclusion is that a lot of political downside risk was removed from Trump's portfolio, in part because he got through the investigation without firing Mueller or pardoning anyone.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It seems like when people imply that the Mueller Report won't mean "expectations", that really has 4 distinct causes, which are fairly important to distinguish—
1. Excessive hope/excitement from certain Democrats that Mueller would bring Trump down
2. Incautious reporting & false scoops
3. A lot of bad stuff getting normalized just because the investigation has gone on for so long
4. Deliberate goalpost-shifting by the WH and others
These causes aren't in any particular order and I don't know what order I'd put them in. All of them seem indisputably relevant. It strikes me as funny though that a lot of people who complain about 1 & 2 are extremely guilty of 4 (goalpost-shifting). Undoubtedly the reverse too.
Read 3 tweets

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Zach Everson
@Z_Everson
Feel like I fulfilled my destiny this morning by drawing an explicit-language warning from public radio. bit.ly/2EgoMWJ
Today's Trump Inc. episode really gave a spot-on depiction of the Trump Hotel D.C., right down to the clothesline-bacon and Seb Gorka cameos. Download it now for your commute: bit.ly/2EgoMWJ
Trump Cabinet members Wilbur Ross and Ben Carson fêted Kuwait at their boss's hotel last night

Via @1100Penn: bit.ly/2UakGGz
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mcm-ct.com
@mcm_ct
MINI CHART STORM

1/
Let’s start with structure...The 2nd leg down out a major high is usually more impulsive (trendy) than the 1st leg. The minimum structure for price travel is a zig-zag or 3 waves. The 3rd wave is almost always stronger than the 1st of a zig zag. $SPX
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This chart has significant timing implications as expectation is to have similar proportions in time BUT STRONGER TRAVEL in price - using this basis its possible to estimate a drop into the 12th which is a Geometrics timing +/- 1.5 days for us for a long time as u know.
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A bounce would be likely from the 12th +/- 1.5 days into christmas (the infamous Santa rally people fail to properly understand) and then a drop to 2100s to 2300s into January 2 or so
Read 21 tweets
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Michael Beckel
@mjbeckel
More than $800M has been spent in elections by #darkmoney groups since #CitizensUnited per @OpenSecretsDC

Did you know that the top 15 groups account for 75% of this spending?

A new @IssueOneReform report examines these 15 major dark money groups

issueone.org/dark-money/
Fact: Most of the top #darkmoney groups are attack dogs. For 14 of the top 15 groups, more than 50% of their spending on ads overtly calling for the election or defeat of candidates from 2010 to 2016 was negative. For 6 groups, more than 90% was negative bit.ly/2QnsXFB
Top among these #darkmoney groups was the US Chamber of Commerce, which reported spending ~$130M on political ads to the #FEC between 2010 and 2016. That’s about $1 of every $6 spent on political ads by all dark money groups during this time. bit.ly/2QnsXFB
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ZaRdOz420WPN
@ZaRdOz420WPN
It's #SinglePayerSunday!
#MedicareForAll #SinglePayer
#MedicareForAllVoter ☑️
RTs Appreciated!
Where candidates for California governor stand on #SinglePayer health care
#SB562
#MedicareForAll
#MedicareForAllVoter ☑️
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Democratic candidate Kucinich releases #SinglePayer healthcare proposal!

#MedicareForAllVoter ☑️
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m.wtol.com/toledonewsnow/…
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Lisa Mei Crowley
@LisaMei62
This is hilarious. They actually called the WH for comment! Will be hilarious if they ask @PressSec during the WH briefing later today. Q warned us they would push the whole "conspiracy theory" angle. They always do when you get too close to the truth.

nytimes.com/2018/04/06/opi…
2. I noticed today even on Fox News they are really railing against @POTUS using military budget to send NG to the border citing the recent accidents & aging military acft. CLOWNS think they've figured out a way to pressure the WH to not "waste money"?

foxnews.com/us/2018/04/06/…
3. An anon posted an article about Paul Ceglia, co-founder of Facebook who is in hiding because he believes the Clowns want him dead (he knows too much). Q confirmed this by replying w/the post number. http:// dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3…
Read 25 tweets
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M.I.B - Deep State University - #BringBackMic
@Tru7hS33kR
So - what's this #DeleteFacebook thing, and what exactly is @CamAnalytica and Trump's data/leadership going to be in trouble for?

Let's dive in, and find out.

1/
2/
Trump hired Cambridge officially in 2016, but the whistleblower is hinting they were testing Trump slogans in 2014, destroying this narrative.

cnn.com/videos/cnnmone…
3/
 @CamAnalytica had the facebook info of 500 million users.

And Russia also had the hacked US voter rolls in their possession, if you recall...

Forget money laundering for a moment, we're now talking "Data Laundering" - first broken by @patribotics

bit.ly/2omCmSY
Read 11 tweets

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