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Another, increasingly alarmed, thread about the extension. The way extension is being handled is reminiscent of the way Brexit as a whole has been handled. It is deja vu all over again. And it is not good. 1/
I tried to set out the choices ahead yesterday (in advance of a lecture to students tomorrow morning). My main argument was that the UK needed to decide what the purpose of any extension is to be, and to articulate a strong case to the EU. See 2/
I was expecting debate on the question in Parliament, and an opportunity for different groups to make their case - eg for/against EP election participation; a people's vote; various visions of Brexit. 3/
Then news emerged yesterday that TM was writing to Brussels requesting an extension. Initially it seemed to be a 'flextension', today it seems to be only a short extension. 4/
This decision appears to have been taken following 'robust debate' within Cabinet, without consulting Parliament, and without any semblance of public support. 5/
The political instincts of Theresa May are, once again, determining the UK's approach. I await to see what the letter will say: but would not be at all surprised to find her essentially arguing for a bit more time to get her deal through Parliament. That is her plan. 6/
If TM and the EU agree to short extension, and if they agree to no UK participation in the EP elections (given that only a short extension is envisaged), it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to obtain a longer extension later. 7/
Any thoughts of a people's vote would have to be abandoned. Depending on the length of the short extension, it may not even be possible to have a general election (given that a new plan/approach will then take time to emerge). 8/
What is most alarming, is that MPs do not appear to have realised the urgency of the situation. Where are the arguments for a resolution to Brexit which ends up with choices other than the WA, no deal, and no Brexit? 9/
Answer: they do not seem to exist (at least not in the mainstream). What, for example, is Labour's view on the extension request? 10/
What process will be followed after Thursday (whether or not an extension is agreed)? Will MPs get to have a say? When? Will there be time for TM to go back to Brussels and agree changes to the extension? 11/
Throughout all this, it appears that the EU have given the extension a great deal more thought than the UK. A 'room document' was circulating over the weekend, which showed that the EU were asking all the right questions. 12/
Michel Barnier spoke impressively yesterday - making it clear that the extension decision was for the EU-27 (not the Commission), stating that they would 'assess' the UK's proposals and come to their view, in accordance with their interests. 13/
The arguments are not straightforward. There are clearly a range of views on the EU side. On the UK side, it feels as though MPs have yet to grasp the significance of the questions, let alone begun to coalesce around answers. 14/
The result is that the UK will find itself in a process, the parameters of which it does not fully understand. We risk embarking on an extension as we embarked on the A50 process - without a plan, and without an idea of what we will do if things go wrong. 15/15
