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I'm doing a Brexit update lecture for my EU law students on Thursday morning. It is difficult to know what to say. It is difficult to make sense of the situation the UK finds itself in - 10 days before 'Brexit day' any of these outcomes could happen. 1/
1. The legal default is no deal. Unless something else is agreed, the UK will leave the EU on March 29 without a deal. 2/
2. The UK could (and legislation is probably required for this) revoke A50, and decide to remain in the EU. So far, so easy. But, for most MPs, no deal and revoke are not good outcomes. 3/
There is, at this stage, no chance that the UK will leave the EU with a deal (be it the WA or any alternative to the WA) on March 29. 4/
So... if the UK still wants to leave with a deal, it will have to agree an extension with the EU. The expectation is (was?) that TM would request an extension at the EU summit on Thursday. 5/
TM will need to say why the UK wants an extension, and how long the extension will be for. A solution will have to be found to the EP elections participation question. And the EU-27 have, unanimously, to agree to the request. 6/
TM doesn't want a PV, she doesn't want a GE, she doesn't want a different deal. She doesn't appear to have any plan, beyond trying to force her deal through. 7/
I'm not sure what the plan is in Parliament today and tomorrow... but those who want to avoid no deal and revoke - a large majority of MPs - simply have to work to help the PM to articulate a path forward on Thursday. 8/
The problem, unchanged for months, is that they do not seem able to agree on a path forward. There are fans of a) the WA; b) a different (softer (eg Norway) or harder (eg Malthouse)) deal; c) a GE; and d) a PV. 9/
Can a path forward be found today or tomorrow? I am not optimistic. Will the EU agree an extension absent a convincing rationale? Again, I am not optimistic. 10/
The result of all this is that, come Friday, we may be staring at a straight choice between no deal and revoke. 11/
In the period since June 2016, we have not been able to agree and build support for a new relationship between the UK and the EU. It's a profound failure of politics. 12/
I wouldn't like to predict what might happen now. But, whatever happens in the days ahead, it will take years to repair the damage caused. 13/13
A PS: it seems that TM is drafting the extension request, after a Cabinet row, and with no reference to Parliament. We will see how the request fares on Thursday. The EU will need to see a path forward.
