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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Here's one I prepared - much (May 2018) - earlier, on a Customs Union. Problems to be overcome for sure... ukandeu.ac.uk/what-turkeys-c…
Here's an earlier @AllieRenison report on Customs Union worth checking out iod.com/news/news/arti…. For the counter view, check out one of many @GregHands articles opposing a Customs Union deal.
Returning to another of my old fashioned views, it would be nice to talk about the Brexit problems, options, and how we could best respond. But I'm nort imagining that's going to be anything but a minority pursuit...
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
For those concerned about the stability of different Brexit options like a Customs Union a Withdrawal Agreement passed by a handful of votes under intense whipping at the 4th attempt would scarcely be the basis for stability
No deal is inherently unstable because even its adherents want deals with the EU, and every country seeks agreements with neighbours. I don't see why Customs Union or Common Market 2.0 are any less stable than the Withdrawal Agreement.
At some point, unless we revoke Article 50, we're going to have to work out how to negotiate with the EU to get close to what we want. We haven't been able to do this in three years as we haven't had a realistic ask.
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Puts a different spin on the failure of MPs to reach a Brexit decision - a PM convinced only she has the answer to Brexit is trying to stop a majority for anything else which would in turn prove her wrong. And most of her MPs blindly follow.
The main reason we are in the Brexit mess is that the PM is convinced she has the perfect Brexit solution, and Parliament disagrees. The PM will not budge, convinced she is also protecting the conservative party, while actually causing it great damage.
Expectations must be another meaningful vote soon as the PM has no other play (she's not a secret no-dealer or remainer, she just believes she is right). There may be no perfect Brexit solution, but with this PM there's not even any debate allowed on it.
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
IF the numbers are anything like this then we face the interesting question of how the Government respond given that many, perhaps even the majority, would accept Common Market 2.0, but it crosses the PM's personal reddest of red lines
I imagine this Government would respond to a victory for Common Market 2.0 with the maturity we have come to expect over the last three years, i.e. none whatsoever, and would probably deny that such a result meant anything, on the evidence of today
Anyway, let's see, the suspicion is that Common Market 2.0 will not pass due to supporters of a second referendum voting against it, and vice versa.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Anand Menon
@anandMenon1
So, back to Brexit. And, with apologies for the delay, I'd just like to share some highlights from the @UKandEU report we brought out last week, which is available here: ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… (Bleeding massive thread) (1)
It's a biggie, and if what I"m about to say doesn't tempt you sufficiently, it also, in a departure for us, has a handy pull out wall chart, a bit like the World Cup ones but better, that will let you reminisce happily about the last 3 years or so. (2)
So @Usherwood kicks us off, with some salutary reminders about the predominance of our politics in the negots: the notification to trigger Art 50 was driven by a anxiety in the Conservative Party that May might never deliver rather than because a robust strategy was in place (3)
Read 39 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Another #2yrsArticle50 panel, on UK-EU future relations
.@CSBarnard24 opens by noting that any future trading relationship depends on settling WA and its issue
Barnard: Backstop will only disappear if comprehensive FTA and customs arrangement. Canada-type deal still needs backstop.

No other magic solution exists
Read 20 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
Important. French #customs announce a new smart border in Calais and Channel Tunnel in prep for #Briext.

What is it, what it definitely isn’t and what’s smart about it? /1

douane.gouv.fr/articles/a1617…
It’s a way to speed up the checks in case of #nodeal. On the way in and out of France (exports/imports). Similar to how transit procedure works currently /2
What it is?
1) Way to submit customs docs online before arriving at the border
2) Hopefully, a way to speed up border/customs checks
1) Different lanes for vehicles that need/don’t need checks

/3
Read 10 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
Thread on #customs transit. Why it isn’t a #Brexit silver bullet and why proposals for NI border relying solely on transit would make it one of the most restrictive borders out there (even if we managed to get to no infrastructure). Might get long /1
Transit is an existing customs procedure. Allows to move customs formalities away from the border and only scan a barcode when passing the border. In some cases transit can start or end at company’s own premises. (Bit more on it here) /2

blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/02…
Common transit will be available after Brexit. UK will have access to NCTS system which is available to all parties of the Common Transit Convention /3

ec.europa.eu/taxation_custo…
Read 17 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 21 tweets
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Jan van de Rieth
@JvdRieth
Report on misperceptions re EU / Brexit.

To have a referendum based on this level of "knowledge" is beyond careless, it is criminal.

kcl.ac.uk/sspp/policy-in…
EU immigrants’ contribution to public finances: Only 29% of the public correctly think that immigrants from European countries pay £4.7bn more in taxes than they receive in welfare benefits and services.

ukandeu.ac.uk/public-wrong-o…
Crime: 56% of the public and 75% of Leave supporters think that European immigration has increased crime levels, when evidence from the MAC report finds no link.

ukandeu.ac.uk/public-wrong-o…
Read 5 tweets

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