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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Puts a different spin on the failure of MPs to reach a Brexit decision - a PM convinced only she has the answer to Brexit is trying to stop a majority for anything else which would in turn prove her wrong. And most of her MPs blindly follow.
The main reason we are in the Brexit mess is that the PM is convinced she has the perfect Brexit solution, and Parliament disagrees. The PM will not budge, convinced she is also protecting the conservative party, while actually causing it great damage.
Expectations must be another meaningful vote soon as the PM has no other play (she's not a secret no-dealer or remainer, she just believes she is right). There may be no perfect Brexit solution, but with this PM there's not even any debate allowed on it.
This is what should happen next. There is no need for an election, just for a change of PM and recognising that this international agreements are long processes in which public debate is essential.
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Am I missing anything while out of regular Internet connectivity? On this evidence not much, for these words from Liam Fox would have rather more impact if he'd shown over the last three years what the benefits of an independent UK trade policy could be.
Of course a UK outside a Customs Union can have trade deals, but with benefits and costs. He has never set this out properly in three years in office (and there's reasonable grounds for thinking UK trade deals would be a contest between farmers and financial services)
Ah well, perhaps if we get the long extension we can have a few months where we debate this all properly. Over and out again...
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Brexit twitter is quiet even by Friday afternoon standards, which could be that we all need a break, or that a long extension seems almost inevitable. Well, I'm off on holiday, so it could all be different on return, but I'm expecting...
Best guess a one year extension with potential to finish early, no breakthrough with Labour or in Parliament, and the chance to rethink. For which read surely a new PM and possibly General Election, and probably not much rethinking. But of course we could be surprised...
And how does one track the likelihood of outcomes given possible new PM and elections? With difficulty, but no-deal still a strong possibility even if not quite the high probability some in Brussels think. Perhaps a slight uptick for referendum as well, but mostly as we were
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Story by @Annaisaac (telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…) that members of the DIT Strategic Trade Advisory Group must sign non-disclosure agreements reflects to me continued confusion of this Government about negotiation secrecy and stakeholder participation
This group's principal purpose according to DIT is to advise the government on trade policy, so for example perhaps considering different approaches to liberalising services trade. Nothing there that should require NDAs, in fact would be best if members could consult with others
There are obvious areas in trade policy where information is secret, such as specific negotiating priorities. Frankly I'd be surprised if these were shared with the group, and if they were many other organisations would rightly feel left out
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) In case we all forget:
We didn't leave the EU last night because brexiters *simply could not agree* on a #Brexit they all liked

This was their failure,written in the stars from the day they won a completely ambiguous vote

They chose candy floss over a plan

#RevokeArticle50
2) we're not leaving because Vote Leave refused, *by design*, to articulate what Leave looked like. As a result they had a majority they couldn't use for anything, because any attempt to turn it into reality saw that majority splinter into soft/hard/no deal #Brexit
3) Vote Leave knew they couldn't win with any particular Brexit, so they didn't define it. They didn't think ahead to (or didn't care about) the implications of trying to turn that plan into a real #Brexit

Because they're cavalier idiots
Read 7 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
So why is @theresa_may so stuck on her lousy deal? Well she has 4 objectives and her deal meets these and nothing else does I believe this explains much about her conduct the objectives are as follows THREAD
1/keeping the tory party together and in power this of course is the top priority. Theresa may is aware that any other options be it dal no deal or some BRINO deal with Corbyn would instantly result in a walk out by one faction and with no majority the gov would fall
2/ May is actually terrified of no deal. All the evidence is that this lwould result in awful consequences for millions of people which would destroy any government that presided over it if she wanted no deal she would not have negotiated a deal 2 start with
Read 17 tweets
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Tom Kibasi
@TomKibasi
THREAD: The myth of the soft Brexit majority.

A majority in this parliament needs to get to 320. It's been repeated so often that it has become a truth—that there is a majority for a soft Brexit in parliament.

Here's why that's almost certainly not the case.

(1/9)
Let's start with the Labour Party (245 MPs).

Soft Brexit is the position of the leadership (see JC letter to TM 6/2).

But there are at least 60 strong backers of a people's vote in the PLP & maybe 5 who want a harder Brexit.

So Labour brings max 180 MPs to soft Brexit.

(2/9)
What would the SNP do?

Well, Scotland voted to Remain, and yesterday Sturgeon said: "preferably asking for a longer extension to put the issue back to voters".

So don't count on any SNP support for soft Brexit

(3/9)
Read 12 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
A thought/question, oh #Brexit Twitter about what happens if the Withdrawal Agrement is voted down again next week.

How does @theresa_may get sent back to Brussels to ask for an extension she says she will not ask for? 1/Thread
@theresa_may She said: "As prime minister I could not consider a further delay beyond 30 June."

People took that to mean she would resign.

But it could also mean, she would opt for a 'no deal' (Party unity over country) over a long extension. /2
@theresa_may How could Parliament stop her?

Because if you believe EU red line on UK participating in EU elections is immovable then the deadline for that decision is April 12.

Even if May falls (she could lose a 'no confidence' vote whichever ways she breaks) she is PM for 14 days. /3
Read 8 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) "We can't stop #Brexit, leave voters will feel betrayed"
This is the final desperate battle cry of some leavers & indeed some former Remainers, even raising threats of violence and the rise of the far right

Reality is #Brexit, any Brexit, will be seen as a far larger betrayal
2) to prove this, just look at the months of failure in trying to get together a Brexit deal. May is struggling to even put together the basics of a deal that's widely acceptable even to MPs who now support Brexit.

Picture what happens when Brexit actually kicks in
3) the DUP, the ERG, the Government themselves, the EU & the Labour party, all support or at least accept Brexit as a political reality if not openly support it.

But even this group cannot get to a sensible Brexit offering
Read 9 tweets
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Steve Parks
@steveparks
Once again the @frontlineclub is packed with journalists, @Byline_Media folk, and TV cameras for the latest revelations in the Cambridge Analytica / Trump / Brexit saga from two whistleblowers.

Follow this thread for live-tweeting coverage, and forgive my typos...
... first thing to note is that security has been increased a level or two since last week’s gathering. Two checkpoints against the guest list, and a minder scanning the room.

We’re about to kick off...
... the focus of attention tonight is Shahmir Sanni, joined again by @chrisinsilico who was the focus last week. @carolecadwalla will be joining later when she’s filed at the @guardian
Chris is carrying a large ring binder of documents...
Read 49 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Tory #VoteLeaveBrokeTheLaw #Brexit #vote #NoDealBrexit #LeaveHQ #tech #Grouping #minister #FBPE #compromise #brexit #NoConfidence #DUP #style #whatstheDealBracknell #CooperBill #ProjectFear #BracknellForEurope #ExtendingArticle50 #BBCQT #Labour #EP2019 #PoshTrump #Amendment
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