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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
OK, here you go! Inc. new followers thanks to @atmccann & the New York Times 😀

V23 #Brexit diagram!

No Deal 14% ⬇️⬇️
May's Deal 0% ⛔️
General Election 25% ⬆️⬆️
Softer Brexit / Long Delay 22% ⬆️⬆️
#PeoplesVote 29% ↔
Rescind 10% ⬇️

Stats comparison to pre-indicative votes
@atmccann And here the high res versions, and XML and .ods files, as ever
jonworth.eu/brexit-where-n…
@atmccann And yes, No Deal is *DOWN*. Because MPs voted solidly against it, the EU is open to an extension, and the Letwin process allows MPs to get to that.

And if you want to disagree with the diagram then sure, but please tell me which node is wrong.
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
The way the government has drafted this Motion to approve the Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow is really nasty.

Text here: theguardian.com/politics/blog/…
It's designed narrowly to fulfil the European Council's criteria so as to set 22 May as exit date.

But then the government would just sit on its hands until 12 April, and once that date is passed there would be no way back for UK as it couldn't organise an EP election.
Once you are beyond 12 April, asking for a further extension to the #Article50 period would be a legal nightmare.

So then, after 12 April, May just has to go "It's My Deal or No Deal".
Read 4 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So what does Bercow ruling out a 3rd #MeaningfulVote on an unchanged proposition mean?

I *presume* he would permit a vote if it were to include the Kyle-Wilson idea for a confirmatory referendum...

...and I have re-worked my #Brexit diagram based on that
This results in the following numbers (and trend since diagram V18 end of last week)

No Deal 13% ↔️
General Election (needs delay) 36% ⬆️
May's Deal* 0% ⬇️⬇️⬇️
#PeoplesVote (needs delay) 28% ⬆️⬆️
Rescind 3% ↔️
UK stays until 2020 19% ↔️

* no way now w/o referendum or GE
As ever high res versions, XML, and probability calculations available on my blog!
jonworth.eu/brexit-where-n…
Read 4 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Days since the #Brexit referendum
9️⃣9️⃣3️⃣

Days since #Article50 triggered
7️⃣1️⃣5️⃣

Days since May agreed the Withdrawal Agreement
1️⃣0️⃣9️⃣
Days to go until #Brexit
1️⃣5️⃣

Hours to go until Brexit
3️⃣6️⃣6️⃣
Solutions in sight
⛔️ No Deal
⛔️ May's Deal
⛔️ #PeoplesVote (for now)
⛔️ General Election (is it even a solution?)
❓Some sort of delay
Read 10 tweets

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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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Zoe Tillman
@ZoeTillman
Here's @gtconway3d at an event at Georgetown Law this a.m. On why he helped found a group of conservative and libertarian lawyers concerned about the rule of law: "We thought there was a little too much silence on the subject on the right side of the political spectrum"
Of Justice Thomas' recent call for reconsideration of New York Times v. Sullivan, George Conway says he'd like that case left alone.

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*laughter*
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Jewhadi™
@JewhadiTM
New York Times reporters rewarded with book deal for their efforts to derail Kavanaugh confirmation washex.am/2Do2VxU
Between Sept. 24 and Oct. 28, New York Times reporters @KateKelly and @RPogrebin authored or contributed to a combined 12 news reports exploring the completely uncorroborated allegations of sexual misconduct leveled against Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
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Jewhadi™
@JewhadiTM
Media Bias? What Media Bias? pjmedia.com/election/media… #Election via @pjmedia_com
If you subscribe, to the digital edition of the New York Times, you'll soon notice that just about every headline or subhed will contain some reference to President Trump.
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S L Lothian #FBPE
@StuartLothian
While UK spirals down & out of control, gripped by self-inflicted Brexit-fixated inward-looking dirty-selfish politics, Major Parties talk to themselves with NO results, so far. Yet, every passing day brings new reasons to put Brexit to a #PeoplesVote with the option to #Remain.
#TriggerIsComing to force a #PeoplesVote on #Brexit, with an option to #endthechaos and #Remain. Many MPs are daily more restive over the lack of a truly #MeaningfulVote - another #May mistake that will come back to haunt #Blukip, after ALL their Lies & wastage of time AND money.
The wheels are falling off 'any Brexit' with each passing revelation of FACTUAL REALITY. Anyone who can't see that (regardless of how they voted) is not keeping up! The doubters in Parliament will be swelling in numbers, by the minute.
#TriggerIsComing
#PeoplesVote
#endthechaos
Read 5 tweets
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Steve Parks
@steveparks
Once again the @frontlineclub is packed with journalists, @Byline_Media folk, and TV cameras for the latest revelations in the Cambridge Analytica / Trump / Brexit saga from two whistleblowers.

Follow this thread for live-tweeting coverage, and forgive my typos...
... first thing to note is that security has been increased a level or two since last week’s gathering. Two checkpoints against the guest list, and a minder scanning the room.

We’re about to kick off...
... the focus of attention tonight is Shahmir Sanni, joined again by @chrisinsilico who was the focus last week. @carolecadwalla will be joining later when she’s filed at the @guardian
Chris is carrying a large ring binder of documents...
Read 49 tweets

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