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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
So what does Bercow ruling out a 3rd #MeaningfulVote on an unchanged proposition mean?

I *presume* he would permit a vote if it were to include the Kyle-Wilson idea for a confirmatory referendum...

...and I have re-worked my #Brexit diagram based on that
This results in the following numbers (and trend since diagram V18 end of last week)

No Deal 13% ↔️
General Election (needs delay) 36% ⬆️
May's Deal* 0% ⬇️⬇️⬇️
#PeoplesVote (needs delay) 28% ⬆️⬆️
Rescind 3% ↔️
UK stays until 2020 19% ↔️

* no way now w/o referendum or GE
As ever high res versions, XML, and probability calculations available on my blog!
jonworth.eu/brexit-where-n…
Also note: in V18 I had it at a 10% chance that Bercow would do what he did today. That's hence changed my numbers all over the place in V19...

Also at the moment we don't know if this rules out Kyle-Wilson
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Related hashtags

#MeaningfulVote #Brexit #PeoplesVote

More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Days since the #Brexit referendum
9️⃣9️⃣3️⃣

Days since #Article50 triggered
7️⃣1️⃣5️⃣

Days since May agreed the Withdrawal Agreement
1️⃣0️⃣9️⃣
Days to go until #Brexit
1️⃣5️⃣

Hours to go until Brexit
3️⃣6️⃣6️⃣
Solutions in sight
⛔️ No Deal
⛔️ May's Deal
⛔️ #PeoplesVote (for now)
⛔️ General Election (is it even a solution?)
❓Some sort of delay
Read 10 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
There is only one coherent case against a #PeoplesVote - it’s if you oppose direct democracy and favour representative democracy.

Any other argument is incoherent.

1/
“Respect the 2016 referendum!”

A small majority voted for Leave, but without knowing how or on what terms. Now we know that detail, would everyone vote the same way?

2/
“My constituency voted leave!”

Maybe in 2016. But now? Are you sure? Even if you are sure, what is the problem with putting it back to the people?

3/
Read 10 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Please, can we just take a shortcut to the end of this never-ending Brexit cycle?

🛑 sending May or Ministers to Brussels to get something or other
🛑 the idea that the Withdrawal Agreement can be opened
🛑 the delusion that the Backstop can be changed

None of that works
The fundamentals are clear by now.

OPT1️⃣- No Deal Brexit
Who wants it?
A few dozen Tory crazies

Can they get it?
It's the default, but probably not - there's no majority for it in the Commons

Is it sensible?
No
OPT2️⃣- May's Brexit Deal (Hard Brexit)
Who wants it?
A rump of Tories in the middle of that party

Can they get it?
No. It lost by 230 votes. Minor amendments to it aren't going to be enough, &🇪🇺won't change Withdrawal Agreement

Sensible?
It's messy, but less bad than No Deal
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Bercow has not selected amendment B on ruling out second referendum...

But has selected Benn (indicative votes). Wollaston, Corbyn & Bryant

Mark Francois furious...
But the issue will be debated, because Speaker has selected Wollaston Peoples Votes amendment... which is argument that Bercow is making... says numbers aren’t the only factor, points out that Francois backed amendment yesterday on Malthouse was chosen
And this Chris Bryant amendment on ruling out another meaningful vote under Commons conventions, discussed yesterday on here and by Bercow - has been selected for debate...
Read 3 tweets
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Charles Grant
@CER_Grant
What will be the outcome of the Brexit negotiations? My views change from day to day, but at the start of March this is how it looks to me. A thread. Chances of May's deal passing are rising, to say 35%. /1
This is because hard-Brexiteers are finally realising that Commons can probably prevent No Deal - and if they destroy May's deal, Art 50 will be extended, perhaps endangering Brexit. So if the May/Cox renegotiation can produce a skimpy fig-leaf, that cd allow DUP & some ERG... /2
to climb down and back May's deal. 20 or 30 never would, but Labour MPs fearing that the defeat of May cd lead to 2nd ref wd help push May's deal across the line. However, EU will not make real changes to backstop (as @pmdfoster has tweeted) so I doubt enough ERG wd back May. /3
Read 15 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
3 things to look out for today:

#MeaningfulVote

1/
1) Rabbits from the hat.

There's little time left for these, but will gvt try to produce some more last minute concessions to soften the blow?

2/
2) abstentions.

This got a bit lost in analysis of late, but 'not supporting' the WA =/= voting against.

Lots of abstentions will both flatter May's support and keep open lines for subsequent action

3/
Read 5 tweets
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Michael Green
@andmichaelgreen
#VOTE like you remember family separation.

#Vote like you remember Kavanaugh.

#Vote like you remember “Fine people on both sides.”
#Vote like you remember Helsinki.

#Vote like you remember Khizr and Ghazala Khan.

#Vote like you remember the fake Blind Trust.

#Vote like you remember their vow to take away your health care.
#Vote like you remember “alternative Facts.”

#Vote like you remember his tax returns.

#Vote like you remember the dismantling of the EPA.

#Vote LIKE YOU REMEMBER EVERY MEMBER OF THE GOP CONGRESS WHO ALLOWED ALL OF THIS TO HAPPEN.
Read 33 tweets
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Joel Strickland
@joelstrickland
#vote

theguardian.com/us-news/2018/o…
theoutline.com/post/6388/the-…
thebulletin.org/2018/10/climat…
Read 56 tweets
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___________
@parking_seal
#Probablemente ([#EO]#probable🍀/[#EN]#Probably🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿)
Read 357 tweets

Trending hashtags

#all #Uncovered #Easter #EasilyDone #Brief #MeaningfulVote #THiSTHiS #BBC #theWorld #vote #denaro #hurricane #intermediari #probe #DontBeEvil #Stato #Constitution #Palantir #spy #asset #risk #DeepState #BoycottFoxNews #MUSTbe #HOWEVER
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