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Robert Peston
@Peston
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Here is the nightmare for @theresa_may. Commons debate for hours has been dominated by MPs calling for softest possible Brexit or even no Brexit. And in just a few minutes we may see majority of MPs backing what many see as a Brexit-in-name-only option, Common...
Market 2.0. Meanwhile DExEU minster Chris Heaton-Harris (@chhcalling) is said by several of his colleagues to have collected 200 Tory MP signatories on an old-fashioned paper letter (yes paper, not electrons) calling for what is frequently described as a "managed" no deal...
Brexit. So if PM backs the will of parliament on Brexit, she starts a civil war and probable break up of her party. And if she defies the will of parliament, her government probably falls. In a nutshell that is why a confirmatory referendum is still a very live option
PS an informed source tells me Heaton-Harris letter “was handed in with fewer signatures” - circa 170 - “but plus the subsequent interest, support is over that” (ie 200 MPs plus)
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Robert Peston
@Peston
As far as I can see this morning, I am the only journalist who thinks the EU may not tonight - after all - force a Brexit delay of nine months to a year on @theresa_may. That presumably means I am just wrong (though there are some in the talks who agree with me). But...
I am reminding you that I have probably got this wrong because there is no merit in pretending otherwise. I don’t have a problem being flattened by the galloping herd. That said, when the dust has settled, I will need to identify what i missed or attached too little weight to...
when assessing the various pressures on EU leaders.
Read 3 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
As everyone already knows, @eucopresident is making the case for a long "flexible" Brexit postponement of no more than a year - but with the UK able to leave earlier if all legal and political conditions for Brexit are met earlier. But, as you know, I do not believe that...
is what EU leaders will ultimately grant the UK, unless the prime minister outlines a different strategy than trying to persuade the Labour party and/or significant numbers of Labour MPs to back the Withdrawal Agreement via modification of the Political Declaration. Because...
if the whole of her strategy is cross-party talks, then EU leaders will legitimately query why anything more than a short number of months of delay is necessary. Plainly Tusk still harbours a residual hope that the UK will change its mind and decide to stay in the EU...
Read 5 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
I am now told by reliable sources that the most likely outcome of the special summit on Wednesday is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till a bit after the elections for the European Parliament at the end May - so that a potential no-deal Brexit...
cannot infect those elections, but not so far that all pressure to sort Brexit dissipates. Just possibly the delay will be closer to what May has requested (end June) than what Tusk suggested (a year) - presumably to reduce the potential for a new PM (maybe called Johnson) to...
wreak what EU leaders would view as havoc.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Helene von Bismarck
@HeleneBismarck
Impressions from conversations with German and British officials, think-tankers and politicians at the Königswinter Conference on 11-12 April. Disclaimer: this is just my personal take and by no means a comprehensive report. Thread 1
After the Brexit intensity of the last few months, it was so impressive that the British delegation found its way to Berlin on the day after the EUCO cliff-edge. Also, Kudos to the German organizers who were forced to update the Programme almost hourly over the last few weeks. 2
Much has been made in the press over the last few days of 🇩🇪 playing good cop to Macron‘s bad cop over the question of an Article 50 Extension at EUCO on 10 April. But 3
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Louise Bagshawe (chat / UK)
@LouiseBagshawe
Unpopular opinion: I think @Theresa_May has done a patriot's job and her level best.

Talk about herding cats. I'm *glad* the Commons "took control" of #Brexit votes as they promptly proved they cannot agree what day of the week it is. "None of the Above" = not leadership
Here's what I now think. As @HouseofCommons has absolutely proved it cannot agree on ANY COURSE OF ACTION on #Brexit, it should vote through the Prime Minister's deal, as she is head of the Executive and she as chief executive HAS made a decision. #BrexitDeal
The Commons gave itself the chance to countermand the Prime Minister then promptly FAILED TO DO SO EIGHT TIMES.

If you do not know what you want, Members of the House, defer to the head of the Government. She has a deal. Vote for it and be done with it. #Brexit
Read 5 tweets
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Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
Brexit: 1/ all eight options were rejected - but the Customs Union and the Second Referendum are in touching distance. We're a parliamentary democracy and if May - 149 votes down - can have a second chance, so should these...
2/ The prime minister has no authority, has signalled she'll soon be gone. Parliament should now take permanent control of the agenda, with MPs consulting their constituents over the top three options...
3/ If after Monday, May has no majority for the Withdrawal Agreement, and there is no majority for Customs Union, we need an election. The election is cast as a distraction by the #FBPE crowd but there is literally no support even for EEA membership in this parliament...
Read 5 tweets
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Ben Kelly
@TheScepticIsle
Support for ‘no deal’ Brexit is the pinnacle of Leave's descent into zealotry. The end result of refusing to plan

Like Trump, 'no deal' advocates have flooded the debate with “alternative facts”
It won't end well

THREAD! PLEASE RETWEET!

#Brexit #WTOBrexit #NoDealBrexit #SOS
The increased support for a ‘no deal’ Brexit is the ultimate failure of the Leave movement. It’s the inevitable consequence of the refusal to grasp details, come to terms with complexity & coalesce around a plan. Compromise can be frustrating. So instead they will have a tantrum.
Some Brexiteers advocated sensible solutions. The EFTA/EEA solution gained a lot of traction in the years before the ref. Even Farage had promoted it & countless others. See Farage below from 2011 essentially making the ‘Liberal Leave’ case!
Read 55 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
Read 9 tweets
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Pieter Cleppe
@pietercleppe
Here's a thread attempting to set out the #Brexit timetable for the next few months, based on this insightful @brunobrussels article:
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/a…
Salzburg Summit 20 Sept:
"Shouting over the “backstop” + starting point of a '“political declaration” on the future relationship that will be thrashed out at a sequence of summits'
Tory party conference 1-3 Oct:
Hoping "Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers in the Conservative European Research Group" do not do anything to prevent the next planned steps
Read 12 tweets

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#SOS #Corbyn #Order #Leave #Brexit #Tory #Article50 #Amendment22 #PeoplesVote #NoDealBrexit #ERG #EURef #Conservatives #NewClause13 #2ndReferendum #brexit #Clause #NursesAreAwesome #bregret #Whips #votes #EU #FBPE #peoplesvotemarch #Division
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