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My two cents on #TurkeyElections2019 in a short thread. 1/6
Erdogan will hopefully accept election results when he speaks, which would signal respect for democratic process. Turkey had history of generally free and fair elections, tho current political climate is constrained & questions about conduct of polls in recent years. 2/6
Good result for opposition in Turkey, which improved on past performances by remaining on message & working together tactically. Now that opposition parties control major cities, question is whether they can deliver on governance and economic services for residents. 3/6
Results highlight polarised politics in Turkey. Reinforces trend of divisions seen in 2015 parliamentary elections, 2017 constitutional referendum, and 2018 presidential elections. 4/6
Big question is whether Erdogan changes course in response. Although hard to think of historical example where leaders who moved in more authoritarian directions have reversed themselves, he is a clever and pragmatic politician. 5/6
Yet Erdogan faces constraints in areas needing change. (1) Economy - averse to external funding & son-in-law is in charge. (2) Democracy - AKP needs to manage hardline MHP. (3) Foreign policy - difficult choice between US and Russia, incl S400s, given Syria interests. 6/6
