Thread by @aykan_erdemir

Preliminary observations on #TurkeyElections:
1) The opposition (#Nation bloc) making major gains, including the capital Ankara & Antalya.
2) HDP proved to be kingmakers - swayed votes to the #Nation bloc.
3) AKP losing significant votes & mayors to its #Peoples bloc partner MHP.

Preliminary prediction on #TurkeyElections: AKP cadres have seen that #Erdoğan's strategy of framing the elections around the theme "existential threat" has backfired, and will start complaining of losing votes, municipalities, & spoils to their ultranationalist partner #MHP.

Of #Turkey's 12 largest cities, the opposition is winning at least 7: #Ankara, #İzmir, #Adana, #Antalya, #Mersin, #Eskişehir, & #Diyarbakır. The largest city #Istanbul is a toss-up! #Bursa, too, is too close to call. AKP is losing Turkey's economic power houses. #TurkeyElections

At the level of subprovincial (ilçe) municipalities, the big winners are #CHP w/ 30+ additional wins & #İYİ w/ ~20 wins. #AKP is the big loser, ironically losing not only to the oppo, but also to its ultranationalist partner #MHP, which might end up w/ 40+ wins. #TurkeyElections

A tally of new cities (7) #CHP won in #TurkeyElections & their populations (~13 million):
Swing from #AKP:
Ankara (5.50m), Antalya (2.42m), Bolu (0.31m), Kırşehir (0.24), Bilecik (0.22m), Artvin (0.17m)
Swing from #MHP:
Adana (2.22m), Mersin (1.81m)

Istanbul (15m) is a toss up!

Among top 10 @twitter trends worldwide, there are now 4 #Turkish topics:

#Seçim2019
Istanbul
#Ekremİmamoğlu
Ankara

The entire country, Turkish diaspora & Turkey-observers watch the opposition victory in #Ankara & the toss-up in #Istanbul, where #Ekremİmamoğlu is now in the lead

With #Ekremİmamoğlu's pending victory in #Istanbul, the main opposition #CHP is close to winning 21 of Turkey's 81 provinces, where almost half the population resides, i.e. 40 million of Turkey's 82 million citizens.

Besides the toss-up in #Istanbul, two additional cities worth watching closely are #Bursa and #Balıkesir. They both appear as #AKP wins, but are still too close to call, and can go to #CHP and #İYİ candidates, respectively. CHP’s @mustafabozbey says he is leading in Bursa.

In his “victory” speech, #Erdoğan said that the #AKP won 16 of #Turkey's 30 metropolitan municipalities. This tally excludes both #Ankara and #Istanbul, and amounts to #Erdoğan conceding defeat in Turkey’s two biggest cities, with 15m and 5.5m inhabitants, respectively.

Poetic justice: @cumhuriyetgzt daily’s former #Ankara rep @erdemmgul, who had been targeted and threatened by #Erdoğan and later jailed for his reporting, was elected today as the mayor of #Istanbul’s #Adalar municipality with 43.7 percent.
#TurkeyElections
@ErdemGulAdalar

#CHP wins 10 of #Turkey's top 20 cities in terms of their contribution to #GDP, including #Istanbul (1), #Ankara (2), #İzmir (3), #Antalya (6), #Adana (8), #Mersin (10), #Tekirdağ (12), #Hatay (14), #Muğla (19), #Eskişehir (20).

#Bursa (4) could end up being the 11th #CHP win.

#CHP has won 21 of #Turkey's 81 provinces, but those 21 account for 62.1% of Turkey's GDP. If #Bursa ends up as CHP's 22nd win, CHP mayors will be in charge of two thirds (66.2%) of Turkey's GDP. Economic powerhouses have deserted #Erdoğan, leaving him with economic backwaters.

#Erdoğan was checkmated by a leader he allied with & another one he imprisoned. #MHP leader #Bahçeli shepherded Erdoğan to a narrative & an alliance scheme that allowed MHP to win #AKP municipalities.
#Demirtaş directed #HDP voters to the opposition bloc, facilitating their wins.

#TurkishElections & the vote count are over, but the entire country is waiting to see whether #Erdoğan
1) Will refuse to concede defeat & try to rig the results,
2) Will first concede defeat & later remove opposition mayors from office & appoint trustees,
3) Lose with grace.

After a long pause, #Turkey’s official news agency finally updates its election results, & reports that the #CHP has won #Istanbul, changing the city from yellow to red on its map. Is this
1) An official concession
2) Ploy to defuse tensions & win time while trying to rig ballots

Substantial number of swing provinces in #TurkeyElections, as 34.6 percent of (28 out of 81) provinces elect a mayor from a different political party. The #AKP is the big loser, handing 8 provinces to the #CHP, and 7 provinces to the #MHP.
m.bianet.org/english/politi…

What to watch for following #TurkeyElections?

Unhappy clients!

1) #AKP clients will be hit by both #slumpflation & the loss of municipal spoils.

2) #MHP lost top two sources of municipal spoils: #Adana & #Mersin. All the new wins together can’t make up for either of these.

Top two revenge votes in #TurkeyElections:

1) Long-time #AKP municipality #Eynesil goes to #CHP as a reaction to the AKP’s cover up of the murder of a girl.

2) Independent woman candidate defeats her former boss, #AKP mayor of #Pazaryeri, who first bullied & then fired her.