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1/ A short thread for $TSLAQ members intending to attend tomorrow's contempt hearing. Especially for those who have not spent lots of time in a courtroom.
2/ First Rule: this is the courtroom of a U.S. District Court Judge. You will at all times show proper courtesy to the Court, the bailiffs, and any other Court personnel present. That means...
3/ No audible outbursts. Nor even any low groans. In fact, not even any eye-rolling. You will sit and listen respectfully. And, actually, I discourage any buttons or other $TSLAQ paraphernalia you might have hoped to wear. It's just not appropriate.
4/ Sure, some $TSLA fans may be on hand. They may behave differently. But that's not you. You will take the high road. This is not some popularity contest where the Judge cares about audience response.
5/ Second Rule: what's relevant in this proceeding is actually very little. Just the matters set forth in the parties briefing, and not even all of that. The issue is not: Is Elon Musk a Liar? Is Elon Musk a Fraudster? Is Elon Musk a Terrible Human Being?
6/ No, the issue is much more narrow: Did Elon Musk violate the consent judgment he signed back in September when, in February, he made his tweet forecasting $TSLA 500k cars produced in 2019 wiithout getting pre-approval?
7/ What about all the other tweets for which he failed to seek pre-approval? The Court may consider those in evaluating his intent, but they are probably relevant only in that regard.
8/ What about Musk's evidence about settlement negotiations? One hopes the SEC attorneys will put that issue to bed quickly in oral argument, to the extent (which I doubt) the Court thinks it might be relevant.
9/ Okay, what happens at an oral hearing? Well, whatever the Court wants. My guess is this hearing will follow the usual pattern. The Court will advise the parties of how much time they have for argument. Then...
10/ The SEC, as moving party, will go first, but reserve some time for rebuttal. Musk's lawyers will use all their time in response. Then the SEC will finish up with whatever time remains.
11/ The Court may well engage the lawyers in a dialogue, asking questions. Listen very carefully. Take notes. Report back to us here with what you learn. But... Third Rule...
12/ Unless the Court actually rules from the bench, or indicates how it will rule, don't assume you know. Many a lawyer has emerged from an oral argument confident he or she carried the day only later to be hit with a bucket of ice cold water when the ruling arrives.
13/ Another thing to keep in mind: The Hon. U.S. District Court Alison J. Nathan is highly educated, highly capable, worked hard to get where she is, and works very hard on the bench with a congested docket and many cases. So...
14/ Judge Nathan almost surely is not nearly so versed in all the $TSLA niceties as you are. And that's okay. Remember: she had to be a neutral umpire making a reasoned decision based solely on the written record before her...
15/ And she then has to write an opinion explaining why she ruled the way she did. Any party can ask the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit to check her homework, and that frequently happens.
16/ So, in theory and - I am convinced - in fact, it matters not whether Judge Nathan admires Elon Musk, thinks poorly of Elon Musk, or is largely indifferent to his doings. She will rule based on the facts and the law.
17/ A final thought: as various people here (@EdgarNights & @ko_strad & others not know coming to mind) have explained, the law of civil contempt does not present a lot of maneuvering room for a judge. Do not have inflated expectations about what a contempt ruling can accomplish.
18/ The longer game is the SEC's efforts to assure integrity in the marketplace as regards Musk and $TSLA, and that goes well beyond the confines of this contempt matter. <fin>
19/ Just got a question: how do I know it's not a closed hearing? The District Clerk's office believes it will be open to the public. If there is a huge crowd, perhaps there will be an overflow room with video monitor. Again, please comport yourself with dignity.
