Thread by @JoshuaCypess

1/ Ppl. ask, why #liberals are infighting so much over 2020. B/c the stakes are the highest possible & most of us are desperate. But 2 types of desperation:

a) normals who want an electable progressive & fear 1972 redux
b) extremists who think this is finally their moment to win

2/ Normals are afraid of:
a) the decent candidates who lost close elections (e.g. 2004) but also
b) 1976 type opportunities that result in poor leaders (sorry Carter fans, but, ugh)
c) quixotic 'perfect' candidates who crash & burn, e.g. 1972, 1952, 1956

3/ Extremists, by definition, often have effective tactics but for bad ends. B/c 72 & 76 show how goofy liberal avatars result in either total losses (72) or temp. gains that lead to even worse defeats (76)

But Es learn the wrong lessons from everything. They too must be stopped

4/ Much of 2020 infighting is from the extremists who know, desperately, that this is their moment

Their proof is that Trump (ym'sh) won (@rayadverb called this the Jimmy Carter effect)

So they are scorching the earth to elect their perfect golden calf

5/ The Extremists think that the lesson of the failures of 72 & 76 is that those guys weren't perfect *enough* Or that if only we could trick the sheeple into finally electing the messiah, he (always a he) will be so awesome they would fall in line & drink the korrect kool-aid

6/ Normals need to fight the Extremists with their messianic ideas & tactics. But they mustn't fall into the same desperation over 'electable' silver bullets

The lesson of 2004: many Ds went for Kerry in the primaries b/c they thought 'swing voters' would like him. They didn't

7/ To put faces on this analysis, Bernie feels like a 72, 76 redux; Biden 2004

Yet there's a 3rd trap: solid #Democrats love technocratic bureaucratic wonks. But they don't win. GOP love good-looking fascistic airheads; they win too often

8/ POTUS is a unique job in world history; it's both Head of State (HoS) and Head of Government (HoG).

Democrats flock to HoG archetypes: legislators, policy wonks, ppl who know the system

GOP crave HoS: charismatic stongmen who talk power & favor the powerful

9/ Dems fail when they go full HoG (So do GOP, but less often), Dems win when they combine the two. But I'd say the majority of US voters (esp. w/ our current suppressed system) will elect the strongest HoS candidate

Dems need to find someone who can act like a HoS or we lose

10/ So, for my fellow #Democrats, here's my analysis of the failures & successes in Pres. elections from 1984 (the 1st I was conscious of) 'til now, using the system above: Head of State (HoS or 'king') vs. Head of Government (HoG or 'Prime Minister')

11/ 1984: Reagan was the perfect HoS for GOP, but even many liberals loved his role-playing for an imagined America (note: I still hate him til this day b/c I paid attention to his actions not his image)

Mondale was HoG wonk, but also another archetype: The Guy Whose Turn It Is

12/ 1988: A rare HoG head-to-head battle. Both candidates were wonky bureaucrats.

Yet we can't discount the dirty tricks (Atwater). This is a crucial theme, later shown in 2000 & 2016: stolen elections are bad facts & can lead to bad conclusions

13/ 1992 was a miracle. It's hard to describe to you millennials the elation of finding a Democrat who would break the domination of GOP which stretched from the D implosion in 1968, the brief lost opportunity of 76, until 92

We had 12 yrs of RR & 88 showed us it was unstoppable

14/ 1992 cont: GHWB was at 90+ approval b/c of the Gulf War; Dems almost nominated another MA liberal (Tsongas)

Clinton had many faults but I still feel people put perfect as the enemy of the good. We need to learn the right lessons

WJC was a Dem who was both HoS & HoG

15/ 1996: GOP had a very good ticket BTW, but both were HoG types (a rarity for them) & Dole was, like Mondale in 84, 'The Guy Whose Turn It Is'

(I do know I'm concentrating on POTUS despite that Congress is equally important; 94 showed that to the hilt)

16/ 2000: classic Dems HoG (Gore) vs. GOP HoS (GWB)

But but but: this was a stolen election

'Bad cases make bad law' & 'flawed results are bad science' 2000 & 16 are two such cases. Dems won both despite a HoS/G matchup

(that said, I still feel we shouldn't ever risk it)

17/ 2004: Dems go for a HoG 'Guy Whose Turn It Is' who also failed the Cypess' Razor Kerry Rule (after this case):

When in doubt over whether someone else will like something, go with what you like

I didn't know anyone who *liked* Kerry, we just thought he was 'electable'

18/ 2008: Head to Head matchup of two HoS, but Dems have that special HoS/HoG guy while GOP go with a huge negative (Palin)

2008 needs to be the 2020 model: we can go for a longshot, but she/he must have HoS qualities. 2008 was like 1976, but was a success b/c of the charisma

19/ 2012 was like 1996: a Dem whose HoS/HoG vs two pasty greedhead cowards who were the closest the GOP has to 'wonks'

As above, I emphasize the need to play strong in every political venue, b/c our losses in all but POTUS gave us our current #TrumpCrisis

20/ Ah, 2016. A stolen election. Clinton would have won, but, like 2000, it should never have been this close

Hillary, to me, is like Gore-Kerry-Dukakis-Mondale with an added 16-ton-weight of misogyny AND a long public life of being unfairly demonized by a fascist Right

21/ 2016 cont: this was almost a perfect Dem vs GOP election (makes sense b/c it could be the death of the GOP)

Dems nominate a very talented HoG wonk Whose Turn It Was yet who many people strongly dislike

GOP select a caricature of HoS: a thuggish TV conman, worst of GWB & RR

22/ So for #2020, Dems should eschew the People Whose Turn It Is; or amazing HoG bureaucratic wonders who most people just don't like, or people you think others will like even though you don't

No, I don't know who a winner is yet (but, I really want a woman, & it's possible)

23/ I started w/the infighting. It will totally continue, but the Normals will calm down when a competent front runner emerges. The extremists will continue though, helped by the GOP, the Russians (no joke), the broken MSM

Stay focused, help the needy & keep eyes on the prize.

@threadreaderapp please unroll. #2020 #Democrats2020 #Democrats