Thread by @garius

I may not get time to do a full @lonrec piece on the subject of Mike Brown's emails, so just in case. Here's a quick thread.

The key thing to remember here is this: This ISN'T about project management, or even transport...

...it's about politics. /1

https://twitter.com/1867ben/status/1120619678416683008

Now I DON'T mean 'politics' in a dirty, dismissive way. A lot of people (particularly on the transport side) dismiss it as such, as if it doesn't matter on projects.

But it does. You ALWAYS get the infrastructure that's POLITICALLY possible, not what is TECHNICALLY possible /2

This is why the role of Transport Commissioner is so critical in London. Because it is a role that has to bridge two worlds - the political one (Mayor/Assembly) and the technical one (building and running London's transport networks). /3

That dual role makes it an EXTRAORDINARILY powerful position, if used right. Bob Kiley (first one) spotted that straight away, but the man who mastered it was his successor, Peter Hendy. /3

Hendy realised that the perceived success of a London Mayor is, largely, defined by what they do in transport.

Because - whether they realise BEFORE taking office or not - it is pretty much the ONLY thing they can influence which genuinely affects EVERY Londoner, EVERY day. /4

This means that the Commissioner is both reliant for his power on the Mayor, BUT ALSO entirely capable of driving a Mayor to take transport decisions that are RIGHT for the city, but which may not entirely play to that Mayor's natural politics or base /5

Indeed to a certain extent the fact that Crossrail, as a project, finally made it off the drawing board (and largely survived George Osborne's cuts) is a good example of this.

Boris Johnson went to bat for it, in no small part because Hendy made sure he did. /6

But that relationship between Commissioner (as independent operator) and Mayor is a fragile one.

Hendy - a Ken appointment - survived Boris' arrival because he made the Mayor recognise the value an independent, expert Commissioner brought to the table. /7

That POLITICAL value as Commissioner was:

1) As 'technocrat' he could get Boris out of problems of his own making
2) As 'information broker' he could WARN Boris of upcoming problems and PREVENT them from damaging him.
3) As 'builder' he could give him shiny things to open /8

Boris' own fare freeze promise (which Hendy deftly manoeuvred him away from), Crossrail, 'Borismasters' even (at the end) the Garden Bridge are all, broadly, examples of all the above happening in some way.

Whether you agree with the politics of those things or not. /9

Now you can argue over whether all those things were done the right way, or even whether a Transport Commissioner SHOULD be doing those things. Maybe you think they should just be a technocrat.

But that's not the REALITY. The reality is that THIS IS what the role has become. /10

Right now, there is an unspoken contract that exists between London Mayor and Transport Commissioner. The Mayor accepts independence in the role, in return for the person doing the job delivering three things - solutions, salvation and shiny things /11

And this is Mike Brown's problem. Because, since the beginning of Khan's reign he has struggled to prove that he can deliver any of those.

Now some - indeed perhaps a lot - of that's NOT Brown's fault. But that doesn't stop it being true. Let's look at them. /12

From Khan's perspective, Brown failed initially to help him through his OWN Fare's crisis. Indeed if anything he helped cause it (or at least stop Khan from setting himself up to create it).

The mistrust that generated between City Hall and TfL is still causing issues today. /13

Jumping to 'builder', Brown is also not really providing a lot of shiny things for Khan to open. Is that Brown's fault? Well UNTIL NOW Brown could argue 'no' - austerity, budget cuts etc.

But the one carrot was always Crossrail. And that's now largely off the table. /14

And now, as if that wasn't bad enough the Crossrail emails have ALSO shown that Khan can't trust Brown to deliver on that final value - information broker. Because not only did Brown not know what was happening on the project to begin with, but when he DID he didn't warn Khan /15

Now YES, again, the reality is that it might only have been a week delay, but the INTENT was to hide stuff from the Mayor and then shape the message. And yeah, every Commissioner does that, but as the saying goes, no one likes seeing how sausages are actually made... /16

So delaying that messaging AT ALL was a HUGE mistake on Brown's part, because he seems to have misread Khan's personality, given the level that Khan has gone to, in order to pointlessly and wrongly (see my piece at the time: londonreconnections.com/2018/crossrail…) claim that HE didn't know /17

So that's why these emails are TERRIBLE for Mike Brown. Hendy (and to a lesser extent Kiley) deftly turned the Commissioner's role into that of an independent power, and information, broker. To London's benefit. /18

From Khan's perspective though, Brown's no longer a broker. He's just broken. And the MOMENT the Mayor has to start defending a Commissioner he didn't appoint is the moment he might as well put his own person in that chair. /19

And given Khan's OWN desire to avoid the Crossrail delays sticking to him in political terms, Brown is now a juicy target to pin that political blame on (rightly or wrongly).

After a suitable 'vote of confidence' (in football terms) first of course, just to show willing... /20

SIDEBAR: I know Hendy has his own views on what the tried to do with the role, and he may turn up and tell me I'm talking utter bollocks here. I accept that. 😉

SECOND SIDEBAR: One of the reasons you may not get a @lonrec piece on this is because I'd MUCH RATHER write something about the challenges and steps Mark Wild and others are taking to FIX this mess, on a technical level. Research for that is ongoing and my time is limited. Soz.