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The CIA thought the USSR would overtake the US as the world's largest economy in 1992.

law.upenn.edu/institutes/cer…
The article tries to understand how such a tremendous intelligence failure could take place.
Part of the reason was because the wrong estimates were 'secret knowlege' and therefore they must be true.
It was secret baloney. Errors do not become truth by classifying them.
To be fair there was a lot of unclassified baloney as well. According to the predictions of 1970 Earth Day the world should have ended by now.

aei.org/publication/18…
Unlike classified baloney this sort of error derives is authority from virtue. We believe it not because it is secret but because it sounds high minded. However it can be wrong just the same.
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