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Some quick thoughts on the Supreme Court conservative majority seeming inclined in oral arguments to support the Trump administration's addition of a citizenship question to the 2020 Census, as it pertains to Mitch McConnell:
The theory of McConnell that I lay out in The Cynic was that he, even more than other pols, cares above all about the game of politics, the permanent campaign, setting oneself & one’s party up for a win in the next cycle, rather than accomplishing concrete policy goals in power.
This explains why the issue he has been most invested in is campaign finance: it pertains directly to winning elections. He recognized that the only way that he and his party would be able to keep winning was to have a decisive $$ edge and so fought hard against any limits on $$.
One counter I’ve gotten is this: what about the courts? If one believes that McConnell isn’t really about ideology, then how to explain his fixation on getting as many conservatives on the courts as possible? But, in fact, this fits entirely with the permanent campaign mindset.
Why? Because McConnell knows that control of the courts is integral to winning elections. Think about all the ways in which the courts have helped his party’s prospects: 1) Citizens United 2) gutting Voting Rights Act 3) dithering on gerrymandering
4) further weakening campaign finance limits in the McCutcheon case 5) weakening public unions (major Dem $$ base).
And now, very likely, approving the citizenship question in the Census, which the feds estimate could result in as many as 6.5 million people not responding to it.
And now, very likely, approving the citizenship question in the Census, which the feds estimate could result in as many as 6.5 million people not responding to it.
The resulting undercount will disproportionately hurt the Democrats in the oh-so-pivotal post-2020 redistricting and in the shift of seats in the Electoral College, and will hurt Democratic areas in the apportionment of federal funds.
In other words, it cements a long-term political advantage. It’s the ultimate permanent-campaign win, all thanks to McConnell's anti-Garland gambit and the new conservative majority on the court. This is how the party can continue to hold power despite so much rising against it.
