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Reliance is entering gigabit to home business. Reminded me of (the now ~failed) @Google Fiber back in the day when I was a googler. Here's why I feel @reliancejio's strategy is bolder, superior and more sustainable in the long run and why incumbents should worry: 👇
Google's 1st big mistake was in treating fiber as a "bet"/"moonshot". It was judged on 2-3yr ROI. Infra like this is 10+ yr bet e.g. laying petro or power lines. Reliance has done this. Reliance gets it.
Google's 2nd mistake was spending the money but not making the hard choices in selecting locations to recoup. No SF, NY, Boston. They went to Utah, Texas, Arizona! Dig a mile to reach what, 10 houses? Reliance is going to Bombay, BLR etc. Dense. Hard. Dig a mile, reach 1000 homes
Google's 3rd mistake was not having a cellular game. They went after TV which was getting unbundled, and landed on cellular much later (GoogleFi). The synergies are obvious: licensing, backhaul, colos, cabling, hiring! @reliancejio has it. They could next have an AWS competitor!
If you *have* to dig to deliver b/w, Fiber is the best place to start. No need to retrench to upgrade. Just upgrade your end electronics e.g. DWDM for more advanced muxing and 100x your speed. Old cable guys are toast w/ all that junk copper underground already. Adv: @reliancejio
Cost of trenching is anywhere between $1.5-3.5M/10km stretch in the US (depends on city, area etc). 70-80% if it is labor+license to dig or the "pole fee" to use existing e.g. BSNL poles. India: cheap labor & reliance friendly govt for licensing. Adv: @reliancejio
Not just that, reliance has existing infra in electric grid to piggy back everywhere (ok, it's the other brother's but..). Also, having a licensed spectrum on wireless works great as a non-interference backup path to your POP if a tree root takes out the primary fiber.
☝️ means Better service quality, lower cost (no need to dig for a backup fiber). Spend that in services, product, marketing etc. That's how you differentiate in this market.
End game? Step 1: own infra, 2: own devices, 3: middleware/OS, 4: apps, 5: content. They've done well in 1, ok in 2&3, bad in 4 & 5. Can short circuit 3-5 w/ investments (kaiOS) & m&a (Saavn). I'll be watching on their strategy on 2. If their DNA evolves around 4-5 = juggernaut.
Cost of trenching: meant to say $150-350k/10k. But can go up 10x for trenching alone in big cities. This excludes other equipment costs to get your building fiber ready.
