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1/ To anyone paying attention, the $TSLA growth narrative is extinct in the US and Europe. The last great hope is China. Let's discuss the latest news.
2/ As we all know, $TSLA has borrowed $552 million from Chinese banks (undoubtedly with the blessing of ChiCom Party officials) to erect a factory shell in a far-flung Shanghai suburb.
3/ As Ross Gerber says, quite cheerfully, China is so great because there are no labor laws; construction can proceed 24/7. And, with Communist Party backing, you can be sure that engineering & environmental obstacles will be quickly surmounted.
4/ The loan has only a one-year term. How $TSLA will repay the loan, and where it will get the capital for the factory equipment, remain mysteries. To my knowledge, Tesla has not even pretended that it has yet ordered any factory equipment.
5/ The Chinese media is tightly controlled. When news is disseminated widely, it is often the case that some higher-up has decided to send a message. The extraordinary publicity for the Shanghai garage Model S explosion may fall into that category. (h/t Reuters) 
6/ If there were any doubt that the wide circulation allowed the explosion video was a message, that doubt should be dispelled by the story circulating this morning: globaltimes.cn/content/114780…
7/ Here's a photo from Times Square. The display was at a building at the SW corner of 43rd & 7th (h/t @deeredbaron):
8/ Curious to see whether the messages were still up, I ventured today into Times Square. As most of you know, it's not simply one "square" but rather is an area about 6 blocks long and several hundred yards wide.
9/ It's congested with tourists, clotted with terrible restaurants & souvenir shops, and, at all hours of the day, lit by scores of garish electronic billboards. Oh, and always with plenty of, um, well, colorful sorts.
10/ Why would I travel to a place that NYC residents avoid at all costs? Because for good reason China poses a special fascination to $TSLA watchers. Let's remember last summer's terrific article by @CoverDrive12 describing a very odd thing he had noticed. seekingalpha.com/article/419196…
11/ CoverDrive detected an extraordinary China pattern. Despite wide variance in the number of cars delivered & revenue per delivery, $TSLA managed to report almost exactly the same revenue, Q after Q. From the article (published before Tesla released its Q2 '18 financials):
12/ CoverDrive wrote: "I have to conclude one of two things. Either revenue is not being reported in the same quarter as car sales, or revenue is coming from a source other than car sales."
13/ Well, today, of course we've learned that Shenma Zhuanche is "the biggest buyer of $TSLA cars in the Asia Pacific Region." It's bought 278 so far for its taxi business. How were those purchases structured? Evidently in a way that helped Tesla smooth revenues across quarters.
14/ It's long been suspected $TSLA was selling to resellers in China. Today is the first time we've had confirmation of fleet deals. And here's the thing about fleet deals: You make them at price discounts. When retail demand is not strong enough to soak up supply.
15/ What do fleet sales tell you about $TSLA's prospects in China? What does the publicity from the Shanghai explosion tell you? And now the news, broadcast in Times Square, that 20% of the Tesla taxis have had serious problems, which Tesla has failed to address?
16/ All that news is important. But what's really important is that the Chinese government has decided to let it all hang out. Reflect on that for a moment.
17/ Just a surmise, but I have a funny feeling that Shanghai factory shell may have a new tenant before any $TSLA Model 3 ever rolls off any non-existent factory line. Yeah, that's right. I think the end is near. If you're long TSLA, Repent. Or, at least, hedge.
18/ Well, the end is near, but probably not near near. It may well take Q2 numbers to bring the curtain down. Indeed, with the extraordinary depth of faith in the $TSLA cult, it may take longer than that.
19/ Btw, the Chinese messages were no longer up when I visited Times Square. Evidently, Shenma purchased only a half hour of billboard time. Here's a link to the message Shenma intended to send. (h/t @DeBoezelaere) cnbeta.com/articles/tech/…
19/ From that link:
20/ Shenma may finally get some rapid attention from $TSLA. But the fundamental problem is incurable. Tesla accelerated deliveries without adequately testing cars or putting in place the vital service infrastructure. The result is very costly, likely fatal, brand destruction.
I'm reminded by @myhandleismt of this news from Malayasia two years ago. Not exactly a fleet sale (but more evidence about how subsidy-driven & government-dependent $TSLA's business model is). motiondigest.com/2017/07/12/mal…
