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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Huge congratulations to Switzerland for being able to sign a completely new kind of Belt and Road agreement on third country cooperation. First time China and other signatory are placed on same plane
I am also told that Berne immediately published it online without even asking Chinese side, as obviously makes sense. In the meantime Portugal has not published its agreement yet and Italy’s was leaked
Berne got yet another huge perk, which will become public in due time
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
How to place US-China trade war in historical context? Transpacific integration will slow, critical links will disappear (no decoupling, but some reassertion of control). Eurasian integration will deepen
And the two processes are linked. We will see stronger economic impact from China in Europe as a direct result of US-China trade war.
As for slowing US-China economic integration it could actually be stabilizing for relations between the two countries. If tariffs stay in place indefinitely, more difficult for US politician to blame China for US economic woes, for example
Read 4 tweets
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
Strange how US journalists and economists keep insisting cost of tariffs is being paid by US consummer. That’s patently false, although it’s a message Chinese authorities love
It is not difficult to imagine a scenario where Chinese companies will pay 80-90% of tariff total directly to US Treasury. In markets with very thin margins, producer would have to cut profit margins by that much and keep prices competitive in order to stay in the market
If Chinese authorities devalue RMB to keep prices, then cost will be paid by Chinese importers - again you might easly think a Chinese oil importer is paying the tariff directly to US treasury and US consumer sees no change in prices
Read 3 tweets
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
It is common in some authoritarian societies today that a book can only be published with a cover warning or a preface detailing its mistakes. We seem to be very close to adopting that model in Western societies.
There might be an official formula to eliminate doubt and streamline the process. For example, every monograph would start with the sentence “The book I am studying contains several ideas from which I want to immediately dissociate myself” with a footnote detailing those ideas
Authorities could also create new literary personae. For example there would be Pound and Pound*. The latter is the writer Ezra Pound but with all problematic passages expunged. And then each person could freely decide if he wants to read or write about Pound or Pound*
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Valentin Schmid
@vxschmid
#China Belt and Road Initiative Explained Thread 👇

#BRI (via @IIF )
1) Invest billions in countries every other investor in the history of the world whether public or private has passed over because of corruption, crime, weak institutions, no education, list goes on infinitely
2) Realize that those countries (or projects) will never be able to repay the debt for the investment but it's ok because #China gains geopolitical and military influence

(one wonders why nobody has has sought this type of influence in the past, except for the Soviets)
Read 4 tweets
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Joshua Philipp
@JoshJPhilipp
My analysis on China's tactics in Europe: theepochtimes.com/china-seeks-to…
When the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launched its takeover of China after World War II, its then-leader Mao Zedong devised a unique strategy: “Surround the city with the countryside.”
This same strategy is now at play in the CCP’s attempts to subvert Europe—to dominate it from within, and in a way that those being subverted will not realize until it’s too late.
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
"I want to warn the world about an unprecedented danger that’s threatening the very survival of open societies.

…I’ll focus on #China, where President #XiJinping wants a one-party state to reign supreme."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…
"Xi is trying to consolidate all the available info about a person into a centralized database to create a 'social credit system'..people will be evaluated by algorithms that will determine whether they pose a threat to the 1-party state. People will then be treated accordingly."
"#China is not the only #authoritarian regime in the world, but it is undoubtedly the #wealthiest, #strongest & most developed in machine learning & #AI.

This makes #Xi the #most #dangerous #opponent of those who believe in the concept of #OpenSociety."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…
Read 22 tweets
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Mona
@Monaheart1229
THIS is what's been happening while we've all been so (rightfully) spun @ the Kavanaugh debacle. This is very, VERY serious stuff. #China #MondayMotivation
wapo.st/2C17OMx?tid=ss…
2/"BEIJING — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo got an earful from senior Chinese officials during a five-hour visit to Beijing on Monday, effectively becoming the whipping boy in the increasingly acrimonious relationship between the two governments. Pompeo is the most senior
3/"official to meet with his Chinese counterparts since President Trump accused Beijing of interfering in November’s midterm elections, and Vice President Pence gave a vitriolic speech charging Beijing with seeking to undermine U.S. interests across the globe. He felt the full
Read 30 tweets
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Adam Ni 倪凌超
@adam_ni
#China will attempt a forceful unification with #Taiwan by 2021, the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi's grand dream of national rejuvenation entails unifying all that #CCP considers Chinese lands, especially Taiwan.

This THREAD looks at this potential scenario.
The legitimacy of the #CCP regime under Xi is based on the twin pillars of economic growth and nationalism. For the party-state, unifying the mainland and Taiwan is critical to its aspirations of national rejuvenation and erasure of national humiliation.
Why would PRC force a unification as early as 2021? 1) 2021 is the centenary of the #CCP; anniversaries and dates have massive symbolic importance in China's political culture. 2) Xi wants unification to be part of his legacy. This is the only way that he can outshine #Mao.
Read 26 tweets
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
hearing—"#China's Worldwide #Military Expansion" is a dramatic bellwether of growing concerns in Washington & beyond.

Now online—hard-hitting arguments + many data points, some deeply-analyzed yet hard to find elsewhere in public domain:
bit.ly/HouseIC
CAPT Jim Fanell, USN Ret, former @USPacificFleet N2:

"today, the PLA Navy consists of over 330 surface ships & 66 submarines, nearly 400 combatants. As of 4 May 2018, the @USNavy consists of 283 battle force ships: 211 surface ships and 72 submarines."
bit.ly/HouseIC
"By 2030, it is estimated [by Fanell & @SCheneyPeters in their chapter in @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute's Chinese Naval Shipbuilding volume amazon.com/Chinese-Naval-… @USNIBooks that] the PLANavy will consist of some 550 ships: 450 surface ships & 99 submarines."
Read 71 tweets

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