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#VENEZUELA crisis:
1. Any scenario in consideration for a final solution to the crisis in Venezuela involves the Armed Forces.
1. Any scenario in consideration for a final solution to the crisis in Venezuela involves the Armed Forces.
2. The institutional framework Chavez built is in the hands of the military, with civilians depending on them for their safety.
3. At this point all we can do is speculate on the health of the coalition in power, it is difficult to have a clear picture of chavismo from the inside, at least, I don’t have it.
4. This struggle is not about the human catastrophe in Venezuela, and it’s certainly not about saving the Chavismo brand. It's the survival of a criminal organization that will most probably end up being tried for corruption, drug-trafficking and human rights violations.
5. The only way to restore the Constitution is through the Armed Forces, they control every single instituition in the country. The calls are for the military to follow the rule of law, currently suspended (since JAN 2013).
6. The Opposition is calling for the military to restore the Constitution, not for a coup. The Opposition has no military power to stage a coup. The only way out is through elections, and the first step is to restore the constitution and change the National Electoral Council.
7. There is misleading interpretation when the Oppostion’s demands to the Armed Forces are taken as a call for a coup. The Venezuelan regime is MILITARY, it's controlled entirely by them. They are the ones calling the shots.
8. It is possible that civilians within government are being held hostage by the military. The cost of leaving power seems to be very high, and the amnesty offers are not credible. If the version from Bolton and Abrams is true, the coalition has significant differences.
9. The current developments in the crisis affecting Venezuela show two critical aspects: the internal pressure in the coalition, and the external pressure from allies. If we believe Pompeo, they won this hand. If we follow what El Español published, Cabello has the upper hand.
10. What should be clear by now is that the Venezuelan people are not being allowed to have a say here, they are demanding a chance to vote, in a legal and transparent electoral process, that is being denied by those illegitimally clinging to power.
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