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Pompeo’s statement about the Russians dissuading Maduro at the last minute from leaving power in Venezuela plays right into Putin’s hands b/c it makes Russia look like it’s 10 ft tall —and gives the Kremlin what it really wants: America’s attention @AlexGabuev
Venezuela’s debt to Russia is actually peanuts. The city of Moscow spends more on public parks and pothole repairs @AlexGabuev
Russia plays effectively on the opposing side’s (the Trump administration’s) incompetence and relies heavily on cheap, risky tools @AlexGabuev
Rosneft CEO Sechin is blocking any productive dialogue with the Venezuelan opposition @AlexGabuev
Sechin’s personal bond to Chavez and Maduro dates to 2008 and has made him a kingmaker on any Kremlin policy decisions @AlexGabuev
Venezuelan military can’t communicate with each other about ending the crisis because they are all being closely watched/monitored by people (Cubans) who were originally trained by the KGB @QuicoToro
The problem in Venezuela is largely Venezuelan in its origin. But the solution in Venezuela is now largely a global power solution. @MichaelShifter
Kremlin sees a lot of openings created by Trump administration’s dysfunction. Russian govt apparatus is prob beyond happy to learn that Marco Rubio is now spearheading US policy, instead of the core administration figures with line responsibility @AlexGabuev
The Kremlin is sober enough to recognize that Trump has been effectively boxed in by Congress, et al on Russia policy and that there’s nothing the he can give them on issues like Ukraine as a potential trade for ending support for Maduro @AlexGabuev
Russia has sold Venezuela extremely sophisticated weapons systems, including 5000 portable surface to air missiles. The govt has started dispersing these weapons to its suppprters. Those missiles could eventually end up being used in the Mideast or even the US @QuicoToro
If current trends continue and all governance breaks down in Venezuela, with guerrillas/narcos filling the void, we’re looking at a Libya-style scenario that could last a generation. #failedstate @QuicoToro
Russian conduct in Syria illustrates that it won’t be spending a penny on rebuilding Venezuela @AlexGabuev
The Kremlin won’t be sending Little Green Men to Venezuela. The Russian military presence on the ground (<130 personnel) is simply not meaningful enough to change the situation on the ground @AlexGabuev
