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Brexit Party now stands for a No Deal/WTO Brexit in 2019: that is a very different public message to the Vote Leave campaign which led the successful 52% campaign in 2016.
"What does Leave look like?" @vote_leave 2016 were very clear it would mean a deal, proposing a phased approach to avoid "unnecessary disruption". Thread.
No Deal rising *among* Leave supporters. It had half of Leavers (a quarter of public) at Christmas 2018. It may well end this campaign with two-thirds of Leavers (a third of the public, even 4/10)
But remarkably little attention is being paid to a v central question.
Does intensifying Leavers for WTO with two-thirds of Leavers also "broaden" Leave? Or does it narrow Leave? Does it carry 5m Lab/LD/Green/SNP leavers?
Remember the "Farage paradox"? Is it back in 2019?
Does intensifying Leavers for WTO with two-thirds of Leavers also "broaden" Leave? Or does it narrow Leave? Does it carry 5m Lab/LD/Green/SNP leavers?
Remember the "Farage paradox"? Is it back in 2019?
Douglas Carswell
Farage Paradox/Brexit Party Paradox 2019?
Leave without a deal now on 28% support among public @yougov
15% in London (40% Leave),
18% in Scotland (38% Leave),
18% in Wales (52% Leave)
30% in North of England.
Brexit Party can top poll on 28% (4.5m to 5m votes) but no evidence 17.4m voted for or want their WTO exit
15% in London (40% Leave),
18% in Scotland (38% Leave),
18% in Wales (52% Leave)
30% in North of England.
Brexit Party can top poll on 28% (4.5m to 5m votes) but no evidence 17.4m voted for or want their WTO exit
Getting 5 million votes in 2019 for No Deal party (with no MPs) & then declaring a mandate for something that a third of people support as the only acceptable form of Brexit
* doesnt make Brexit more likely by 2020
* vg politically if prefer "Betrayal" slogan to having Brexit!
* doesnt make Brexit more likely by 2020
* vg politically if prefer "Betrayal" slogan to having Brexit!
About one quarter of Leave 2016 voters (4 million to 5 million) were very consistently pro-EEA when included FoM. These voices have tended to retreat quietly from the fray. In a forced choice, up to 6 million Leavers won't take No Deal as a legit Brexit.
Farage paradox of Ukip rise 2012-14 visible in the Eurobarometer data on attitudes to EU, as is the 2015-16 success of vote leave
Longterm EU-scepticism in UK; EU recovery 2011-15 from nadir, then outcampaigned in 2016.
Correlates with Ukip rise
