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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Four years ago.
7.26am, 4th May 2015.
Cameron's tweet promised stability not chaos, yet ushered in easily the most unstable & unpredictable four years of British peacetime politics since 1918. My take @CapX on the lessons of our age of political volatility
capx.co/the-age-of-pol…
Taking a step back, two (three) years of utter mayhem, 2014-17, followed by two years of stalemate, since June 2017 exit poll.

2014: Ukip Euros, Scotland
2015: Clegg collapse, SNP landslide, Corbyn
2016: Brexit, Cameron out, Boris blows up, Trump
2017: May campaign collapse
David Cameron's memoir this Autumn will want to set out a record - decade as party leader, 6 years as PM - that spans beyond referendum that ended his political career. Its reasonable to make his account of this tweet - what he got wrong & why - one credibility test of his memoir
What are other people doing to mark "chaos with @Ed_Miliband day" this year? There should be a @CheerfulPodcast anniversary special for next year's 5th anniversary, but it might be trickier to persuade David Cameron to be a guest on it.
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The fourth anniversary of the 2015 General Election itself (7th May) falls on Tuesday.
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
Colin Parry has called for Claire Fox to stand down as Brexit party candidate for the North-West of England - as she supported the IRA bombing in Warrington which killed his son in 1993. She would be MEP for Warrington if elected
This was Revolutionary Communist Party's defence of the IRA murders in the Warrington bombing: that the Irish had the right to defend themselves. (The Irish govt was anti-IRA pro-peace but RCP believed the terrorist group were the legitimate representatives of the Irish nation)
Fox expresses sympathy for Parry. She says that her views are "well known" though "unaired for many years". So the statement implies that her unaired views - for the IRA bombing campaign, because Northern Ireland exists - have not changed.
Read 36 tweets
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
"Pro-EU parties to use European elections as 'soft referendum'"
* the approach outlined (no alliances or pacts, compete with other pro-EU parties) is literally the opposite of a referendum approach (combine/aggregate: seek majority).
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
It doesn't work as a proxy referendum
britishfuture.org/articles/europ…

Probable Change UK, Greens, LibDems, Renew contest in some regions reduces no of pro-Remain MEPs, eg 4-way split of 15-20% can "waste" votes under PR lists. (Eg waste < 5%, or end wasting 15% = no seats x4 if unlucky)
A particular risk in regions that are smaller & more challenging (eg especially north-east; also east midlands, east of england). It may be important in Wales, where Plaid means 5-way division of non-Labour pro-EU. Scotland a bit different again: major pro-EU party in SNP
Read 20 tweets
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
Most probable outcome of European Council (21st to 22nd March) is an agreed extension to Article 50 (perhaps to 22nd May, or to end of June). This short extension may make more difference than is often suggested, as to whether decisions are made (not deferred again) in April-June
Must be mutual. If the EU wants the withdrawal agreement to pass, the logical strategy is to be very open to a 2-3 month extension (with v.few conditions) while setting out clear conditions on any further extension (including that an extended extension has to be 12-18 months).
The Opposition (if committed to preventing No Deal by July) would need to either support a longer delay, or to offer terms for support/acquiescence to Withdrawal Agreement.

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