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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Quiz: I've written a lot about factors that impact Roku's business like a subscription business model and wholesale transfer pricing. What will be the most important Roku numbers tomorrow? See generally: finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/r…
Quiz Question 2: What is the decoder ring for these ratings? Is there a Rosetta Stone? bing.com/amp/s/www.nasd…
"Analysts expect Roku to finish the first quarter with approximately 28.4 million active accounts and ARPU of $19, up from $17. Consensus estimates call for $192 million in revenue, which would represent 40% year-over-year growth and an adjusted net loss of $0.24 per share"
Here's the Roku shareholder letter. Is there enough data to understand the unit economics? How many gross and net additions did they have? What was customer acquisition cost?This level of disclosure is ~ the norm. ir.roku.com/static-files/4…
When you see a chart like this do you check the assumptions and see how much is guessing about the unit economics of the various companies? Do you think the comparison is apples to apples? How many of these businesses reveal gross churn? Can you calculate CAC without that?
I'm making a general point about disclosure not whether a particular business is attractive. I picked Roku as an example to make a point about missing data. There are scores of other examples I could have used. abovethecrowd.com/2012/09/04/the…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1. Nike
2. Costco
3. Berkshire
4. Amazon
5. MCI Communications
6. Microsoft
The stock I never owned was MCI WorldCom. At first I avoided owning it since I had enough telecom. Then I read an Andrew Odlyzko paper in August of 2000 and concluded: "Holy crap! UUnet is lying!" So I quickly shorted MCI WorldCom and a basket of other stocks like JDSU.
Another "Holy Crap they're lying" moment in my life was when I read this:

"Enron Broadband partnered with Blockbuster yesterday in a 20-year exclusive deal to sell movie-on-demand services, including 500 titles, on its broadband network by year’s end."

forbes.com/2000/07/20/mu4…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
A friend of mine said to me recently that he knew exactly how much cash his businesses generated but that he has no idea what his earnings are until his accountants tell him. Another said his dad felt the same way about his car dealership. Cash is a fact. Earnings are an opinion.
"The value of any business is determined by the cash inflows and outflows, discounted at an appropriate interest rate, that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset" John Williams

"The only unforgivable sin in business is to run out of cash" Harold Geneen
"Todd and Tedd are looking for things that they feel they understand what will be developed by that business between now and Judgement Day, in cash."

Not earnings. Cash money. Every person who runs a business knows CREAM (cash rules everything around me). 25iq.com/2016/01/02/a-d…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
That's probably enough highlights from the Berkshire meeting for this morning. Somehow I have been roped in to explain what Buffett and Munger actually do. I don't always agree with them but I try to understand what they actually say and believe. Some people just make stuff up.
"If you have a choice between being a great analyst or being a great salesperson, salesperson is the way to make money. If you can raise $10B fund, you get a 1.5% , fee and you lock people up for ten years, you will do well even if you are the world's dumbest investor." Buffett
In another Twitter thread I'm talking about the contrast between my day job where I have access to "rich Corinthian telemetry" about effectiveness and my many Charlie Munger tweetstorms from this morning where I have almost no telemetry. This is 2019. Where's my telemetry?
Read 3 tweets

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David Mullings
@davidmullings
Here’s a little lesson in business registration for my US and Jamaican followers:

Most US companies are gusteres in Delaware because it has the most favourable laws for businesses AND “has a separate Court of Chancery to hear cases involving corporate law”

No corp taxes either
Just read this - delawareinc.com/blog/facebook-…

Jamaica is nothing like the USA.

I can register in a different state and do business across each state with certain registrations and/or licenses. The USA is a union of individual states.
Most entrepreneurs setup an S Corp or an LLC in their home state, mine is Florida (no personal income taxes so a pass-through entity is preferred and we have Homestead Exemption too).

But that is just at the startup phase to keep over head low.
Read 29 tweets
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Michael Krieger
@LibertyBlitz
1/ Thread on my latest post, which discusses the very real and present threat posed to our civil liberties as a result of surveillance capitalism and the increasingly close relationship of tech giants with government.
2/ Government surveillance and loss of civil liberties has been a primary concern of mine since I started writing publicly. The loss of the 4th Amendment in particular became increasingly troublesome after 9/11. I and many others were warning about it before Snowden came out.
3/ One key thing we learned from Snowden was the extent to which private companies, aka the big tech names we love so much, were helping government spy without telling the public. But we had hints of this from much earlier...
Read 23 tweets
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Price Action Trader
@PAVLeader
#Quiz: After distribution & mark down, which stock is waking up NOW after a long 10 years of accumulation?

Note: This is NOT at all a recommendation to buy. Just for learning purpose I need you to spot it.

#TradeWithPAL
#LearnMarketStructure
#SundayHomeWork
#PRAJIND is the right answer given by @AshishJha1996

Attaching the monthly chart for your review. Check the volume on down move & volume on up move.

There is a heavy sell-off this week. Dont rush to buy until ur setup says or the price reversal is seen only daily /hourly chart
@niftywizard @sanstocktrader @Amit_Gulecha @Trendmyfriends @BissaGauravB @chief_vk @thedumbtrader
Read 3 tweets
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Christopher Glyer
@cglyer
Long rumored @TheJusticeDept indictment of #APT10 is out. sc.cnbcfm.com/applications/c…
Here are my observations/highlights from reading the indictment (channeling my inner @pwnallthethings):
-the indictment indicates #APT10 operations started in 2006 and went through 2018. The 2006 activity was likely focused on US Government, Military, and defense contractors

1/n
Interestingly the indictment calls out multiple government organizations by name that were victims including:
@NASAGoddard, @NASAJPL, @LLNL, and the @USNavy

2/n
Read 24 tweets
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Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
#Important:
Yesterday late afternoon #Russia/n forces took 3 positions in Qusseyr and Juseh and established checkpoints. #Hezbollah, not informed of the Russian presence, came close to these forces and asked their immediate pull out+
Following the direct intervention of President Bashar al-Assad, the Russian force pulled out this morning and avoided any clash with #Hezbollah in the area.

hezbollah maantin and kept all positions. The #Russia/n move was not coordinated.+

#Hezbollah did not...I repeat, did not pull out one single element from the area.

I spoke to people on the ground: The Russian decision was unclear and considered unwelcome by the forces on the ground. Still, many elements of this move are unclear.

Read 6 tweets
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Catherine Walsh
@gurriersread
1/ #THREAD Ah, teeny tiny demographical instance of something, hastily wound up to a coy, careful kind of un-endorsement of something else, even uses paper in a medical / scientific journal to try substantiate this un-endorsement placement #Beware #BullAtWork How 'well-connected'
2/ and how reminiscent of a certain type of anti-vaccination trolling / disinformation.😬 #Questions such as: A/what percentage of the population actually use the product B/ what percentage of that specific demographic have been injured seriously, in a clinical sense or in the --
3/ particular mode described in the, eh, 'article' ? C/ So even if as seems likely this only verifiably happened to a tiny % of users,& even if the argument that it is all just public knowledge/public info. is applied so it appears to be, lets say for the heck of it, 'authentic',
Read 9 tweets

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