Thread by @RichardMNephew

It should not go unnoticed how swiftly people who argued that we could get a "better deal" with Iran through more sanctions and tougher diplomacy are shifting to advocacy of military options.

Here we are, barely a year after JCPOA withdrawal, and some of these folks are already promising us a "two strike" war that solves everything. Now, that's crazy and no one seriously believes this. But, it has to have a bearing on how we treat their entire analysis.

Don't forget: we were literally just told that we were going to maximize pressure via sanctions by driving Iranian oil exports to zero because that will get us a diplomatic solution faster. That was two weeks ago, folks.

If they lost confidence in this approach this fast, did they ever have it? Did they agree all the while with my analysis -- and that of other folks -- who said that more sanctions would never get them their nuclear and broader policy objectives? Were they -- gasp -- fibbing?

The real truth is sadly obvious: there is no and there was no diplomatic plan for many of these people. Their intent, as many of us said, was to escalate the situation with Iran into a crisis so that military options inevitably enter into the discussion.

It is the only way in which they could stand some chance of obtaining their maximalist goals, though -- I must stress -- I think even post-conflict, we're far more likely to face an Iran dashing for the bomb (albeit with a longer race to run) and more committed to the course.

And, then, with a crisis at the doorstep, they could scream about imminent threats, whether nuclear or regional or both. That was their plan. It is their plan. Bolton told us this before he ever set foot on West Exec. nationalreview.com/2017/08/iran-n…

This may seem an obvious point, but it is important so that we can all remember this the next time these charlatans give us their advice. Don't believe them. Don't trust them. Don't get sucked into their "it'll be easy" rhetoric.

So, what do we do now? Well, there is still a lot of time for diplomacy notwithstanding what's happening today. Members of Congress need to tell the Administration immediately that they do not support launching ourselves down the slippery slope to conflict.

International partners can signal their displeasure and make the situation far more complicated by taking steps like Spain's withdrawal of its frigate from the Lincoln group. Basing and transit rights remain an important part of the U.S. alliance and operational structure...

And, the rest of us can remind this Administration that there was no imminent nuclear crisis before they started it and there need not be if we are prepared to take a solid step back from the brink and really offer Iran a starting place for talks.

Bluntly, I do not expect any of this to work and think, as I've said since November 2016, that a crisis with Iran is the logical end result of the Trump Administration. But, it is worth a try.